Background: The notion of reviving extinct species, often termed "de-extinction", has gained traction in the scientific community with advancements in genetic engineering tools like cloning and CRISPR. This forecast seeks to ascertain the feasibility and realization of bringing a mammalian species back from extinction using these methods by the end of 2024.
Criteria for "Successfully Brought Back":
Authentic Genetic Revival: The mammal must have genetic material that closely resembles (if not identical to) the extinct species. Minor differences may be acceptable if they are the result of necessary modifications for viability.
Full Lifecycle: The mammal should be able to live a natural lifespan and exhibit natural behaviors characteristic of its species. A simple birth or initial growth isn't sufficient; the mammal must be viable in the longer term.
Reproductive Capability (if applicable): If the extinct mammal species was known to reproduce in a specific manner, the revived individual should also demonstrate reproductive capabilities, unless its short lifespan by 2024 doesn't allow for reproduction yet.
Technological Method: Only mammals revived through cloning or CRISPR technology will count. Other methods of genetic engineering or revival are not considered.
Resolution Criteria:
Verified Revival: The revival must be documented in a recognized scientific journal or platform. Peer-review or expert verification is necessary for resolution.
Single Successful Instance: Even if only one individual mammal of a species is successfully revived, it will lead to a YES resolution.
End Date: The revival must be confirmed and verified by December 31, 2024. Any announcements or discoveries after this date won't be considered.
Potential Caveats:
Hybrid Species: If a mammal is brought back that's a hybrid of an extinct species and a current species (to ensure viability or for other reasons), it must still predominantly exhibit the characteristics of the extinct species for a YES resolution.
Transient Lifespan: If the revived mammal lives only for a short time (hours or days) and doesn't demonstrate longer-term viability, it won't count towards a YES resolution.
Secondary Extinction: If a mammal is revived but then goes extinct again before 2024 ends, it still counts towards a YES resolution, as the focus is on the act of revival.