Will Israel invade Lebanon before September 1, 2024?
Sep 1

Criterion for “invasion” in this market is a military action involving the crossing of over into Lebanese territory of either:

a. 5000 Israeli troops,

b. 7 battalions or

c. 2 brigades

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What does "5000 Israeli troops" mean? Do they all have to be inside Lebanon at the same time? And how does this resolve if the exact numbers are not public?

Very good point. I revised with criteria that approximates that number of troops and is likely to be publicly available information.

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