Will the US in 2050 be more than 35% Black?
5
100Ṁ76
2030
30%
chance

I think it's likely. Today's approvals are irrelevant; see the interracial marriage debate (to the extent there was one).

  • Update 2025-11-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on the 2050 census. Mixed race individuals will be included in the count (unlike the 2020 census which the creator considers an underestimate for excluding them).

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What will be used as the source and definition? Wikipedia currently has it at 12.4%

@AlexanderTheGreater The 2050 census. The 2020 census is an underestimate because it excludes the mixed race.

@EnopoletusHarding so who is any percentage black counts as black?

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