Will Russia make any major gains in Ukraine in April?
16
1
Ṁ358Ṁ13
resolved Apr 28
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
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Needless to say, there is a lot that can go right for the Russian army, so I don't want to speculate. There is also a lot that can go wrong. This market resolves to "yes" if Russia and its allies (DNR, LNR, Belarus') make any major gains in Ukraine in April (the call will be made by me what counts as a "major gain"). If it does not make any major gains, this market resolves to "no". Mariupol and Chernigov will not be counted as a major gain, but a capture (or even full encirclement) of Harkov, a full capture of Mykolaiv, Zaporozhia, Dnipro, Sumy, or Kriviy Rog, or an encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Donbass will be, as well as Russian forces reaching deep into Poltava Oblast. I'll update my thoughts as the month goes on.
Apr 1, 1:59pm: an offensive in Western Ukraine will also obviously count
Apr 1, 2:00pm: taking back Hostomel airport will not count, but gains in the Kiev area beyond Irpin will be
Apr 18, 1:25pm: So far, we haven't seen nothing (or I would resolve it as yes).
Apr 27, 1:18am: Still nothing
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