Will Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?
2
10kṀ235
2027
49%
chance

Market tracks: An independent, peer-reviewed replication of Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients.”

YES if, by 2026-12-31 (23:59 UTC), a paper accepted in a peer-reviewed journal (online-ahead-of-print / in-press counts) by a team with no overlapping authors with Villarroel/​VASCO explicitly states they replicated the core claim (found aligned multiple-transient events).

NO otherwise.

Independence: No shared coauthors with any Villarroel/​VASCO aligned-transients papers. Shared data, acknowledgments, or referee reports do not break independence.

Notes: Methods, datasets, and statistical thresholds don’t matter for resolution—only the existence of the accepted, peer-reviewed independent paper claiming replication.

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