Will it ever be confirmed India has a greater >125 IQ population than Japan?
Will it ever be confirmed India has a greater >125 IQ population than Japan?
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After China and the U.S., the country with the highest over 125 IQ population appears to be Japan (also the second most populous rich country). The question is, does India, the world's third largest economy by PPP, have a greater >125 IQ population than Japan? India's average IQ has variously been estimated from the high 70s to the low 80s, so assuming a standard deviation within third word norms, this seems unlikely (remember, Brazil has a smaller >125 IQ population than Hong Kong). However, it seems to be agreed by all India's standard deviation of IQ is above third world norms. Will it ever be confirmed India has a greater >125 IQ population than Japan?
Resolves on January 1, 2030, or whenever this case is conclusively resolved prior to that. Post your arguments below. Will not resolve to prob.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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