Will it ever be confirmed India has a greater >125 IQ population than Japan?
6
141Ṁ5712030
8%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
After China and the U.S., the country with the highest over 125 IQ population appears to be Japan (also the second most populous rich country). The question is, does India, the world's third largest economy by PPP, have a greater >125 IQ population than Japan? India's average IQ has variously been estimated from the high 70s to the low 80s, so assuming a standard deviation within third word norms, this seems unlikely (remember, Brazil has a smaller >125 IQ population than Hong Kong). However, it seems to be agreed by all India's standard deviation of IQ is above third world norms. Will it ever be confirmed India has a greater >125 IQ population than Japan?
Resolves on January 1, 2030, or whenever this case is conclusively resolved prior to that. Post your arguments below. Will not resolve to prob.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will India have a larger GDP than Japan in 2027?
80% chance
Will India surpass China in terms of GDP before 2050?
42% chance
Will GPT-5 have an estimated IQ higher than 101?
85% chance
When will there be a confirmation* of an adult human, whose IQ score was improved by 15 by gene-editing?
Will Japan have a bigger population than Russia in 2050?
41% chance
Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?
18% chance
Will there be an affordable non-invasive way to increase the IQ of the average adult by 25+ points before 2030?
6% chance
Will average IQ in developed countries drop 15 points or more by EOY 2098?
5% chance
Will there be an affordable non-invasive way to increase the IQ of the average adult by 50+ points before 2030?
5% chance
Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]
52% chance