After seeing EY's pinned tweet I considered that it may actually be important and worth putting extraordinary effort, so I try to think about creative strategies about it.

By "should" I mean at least mildly significant, like if have some acquitance who know somebody famous it probably worths my time trying to contact them (if that is significant influence at all), but not like scheduling every hour in all days before release with anything remotely influential (if of course I will not decide that it is incredibly important question for something like that).

I see that it's subjective, I can answer some (like, a few dozens?) questions. I think I also can listen to arguing what is worth doing it etc.

And I thought about making markets like "what I will think 0.5/1/2/5/10/20 years later" before closing this one and watching what they will say, I am just not sure it is a good idea, and also I expect a lot of personal uncertainty in years and wanted to make something more pinned.

I am in general new to any prediction markets, so I am not sure about a lot. I don't know should I bet myself about that my question. And I probably can edit it for first time? A lot?

Currently I expect:

If I decide that it is already too late or that 16k make my pre-order really little significant, then all "should" options resolve no, all "not should" yes, and probably "should not" to no (because also doesn't matter).

My original question on lesswrong: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gK889YoxGqJHrXNmh/what-to-do-with-pre-order-if-I-live-in-Russia

Eliezer Yudkowsky's pinned tweet: https://x.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1922710969785917691

And tweet that made me reconsider the question: https://x.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1922710977537245351

Pre-order link: https://ifanyonebuildsit.com/?ref=eyxmay#pre-order

Additional info:

I now checked - the tweet was from May 15 (even if I felt that I first saw the issue in, like, July) and release date looks like Sep 15 and EY says about waiting two months, so I am not sure now that it worths pre-ordering, or at least worths more than buying from first print.

I am pretty sure I want to read it (and pretty sure I will, unless I consider that I shouldn't because I don't have licensed copy).

I was concerned about ASI question and I watched and read a lot (though I didn't finish reading IEM) and as result I found anyone except Yudkowsky frustratingly unconvincing (eg Hanson didn't sound any convincing just at all, Christiano looked generally plausible but only before reading EY about Adequate World).

I buy the idea of Tegmark IV, so I expect not ceasing to be, but continuing in some other world, but I have no idea how they will be.

I didn't understand that idea with "dignity points", I want probability to grow more than from 0% to 0%.

I find almost all people very frustrating, so I don't feel very moved by the idea of saving the world. I am not generally afraid of death by itself, so I don't feel very moved by it too (unless most of Tegmark worlds are terrible?). Though obviously enough moved to do more than just liking and retweeting the thread and forgetting about it.