After seeing EY's pinned tweet I considered that it may actually be important and worth putting extraordinary effort, so I try to think about creative strategies about it.
By "should" I mean at least mildly significant, like if have some acquitance who know somebody famous it probably worths my time trying to contact them (if that is significant influence at all), but not like scheduling every hour in all days before release with anything remotely influential (if of course I will not decide that it is incredibly important question for something like that).
I see that it's subjective, I can answer some (like, a few dozens?) questions. I think I also can listen to arguing what is worth doing it etc.
And I thought about making markets like "what I will think 0.5/1/2/5/10/20 years later" before closing this one and watching what they will say, I am just not sure it is a good idea, and also I expect a lot of personal uncertainty in years and wanted to make something more pinned.
I am in general new to any prediction markets, so I am not sure about a lot. I don't know should I bet myself about that my question. And I probably can edit it for first time? A lot?
Currently I expect:
If I decide that it is already too late or that 16k make my pre-order really little significant, then all "should" options resolve no, all "not should" yes, and probably "should not" to no (because also doesn't matter).
My original question on lesswrong: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gK889YoxGqJHrXNmh/what-to-do-with-pre-order-if-I-live-in-Russia
Eliezer Yudkowsky's pinned tweet: https://x.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1922710969785917691
And tweet that made me reconsider the question: https://x.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1922710977537245351
Pre-order link: https://ifanyonebuildsit.com/?ref=eyxmay#pre-order
Additional info:
I now checked - the tweet was from May 15 (even if I felt that I first saw the issue in, like, July) and release date looks like Sep 15 and EY says about waiting two months, so I am not sure now that it worths pre-ordering, or at least worths more than buying from first print.
I am pretty sure I want to read it (and pretty sure I will, unless I consider that I shouldn't because I don't have licensed copy).
I was concerned about ASI question and I watched and read a lot (though I didn't finish reading IEM) and as result I found anyone except Yudkowsky frustratingly unconvincing (eg Hanson didn't sound any convincing just at all, Christiano looked generally plausible but only before reading EY about Adequate World).
I buy the idea of Tegmark IV, so I expect not ceasing to be, but continuing in some other world, but I have no idea how they will be.
I didn't understand that idea with "dignity points", I want probability to grow more than from 0% to 0%.
I find almost all people very frustrating, so I don't feel very moved by the idea of saving the world. I am not generally afraid of death by itself, so I don't feel very moved by it too (unless most of Tegmark worlds are terrible?). Though obviously enough moved to do more than just liking and retweeting the thread and forgetting about it.
1,000I suppose it's better try to write in comment, considering Ai function, than change description again: it occurred to me, that I don't need at all trading here after I already will not be able to do anything about it, so I need to close/halt trade (I set it to Sep 16, day after expected date of release) even if I am still going to resolve it only on Oct 21 when I actually will think what I need to predict, not what I will think I will think.
@mods I got warning message to resolve the question or extend the close date. I can't do either because it is not yet Oct 21 so I don't know what I think in that day and it is already not before Sep 16 of pre-order ending date so I can't actually pre-order if market will stably be higher than eg 80%. What to do?
@EniSci what's wrong with extending the close date? You can just leave the question open until october 21 it seems like
@ian maybe I am overthinking it, trying to much to get right decision theory and incentives, but... it is "personal decision in hindsight", pre-order ended up - decision already made, any information transferred from future by prediction is now useless, it can not affect me pre-ordering few days before current moment.
And as I thought because of that and difference between closing at Sep 16 and resolution (or at least stated moment when I will get necessary for resolution information) at Oct 21 it was blazingly obvious that there will be no opportunity to trade after Sep 16 so if you want to trade you need to do it before. Maybe I fell into transparency illusion?
And so it is bad idea to perform policy of first stating one conditions and then changing them, it makes my word less credible.
And if I knew in advance that I can't halt trade for 1.5 month before I get my better decision (though why? Loans exist exactly to make you able to put mana into long term markets and don't lose trading assets), then I would just in advance set resolution resolution date to immediately after closing (Sep 16), so if I expect to not be able to halt trade after decision was already made then I have no reason to create markets with resolution later than closing in the first place, because if I can't follow new information I have zero utility from it, while traders still can get utility by betting in much longer period when decision can not be made, but new information about what I will think in hindsight is still available, so trading even when decision still can be made will be skewed by the expectation of trade when it can't be, so it is not just gives me nothing after decision can't be made, it also gives me less when it still could than counterfactual where I just resolve it to my thoughts immediately after I can't anymore change my decision by market information.
There are different kinds of markets where trade after info for resolution is out is still useful, eg bets on content of coming soon video/text, where you can get information about it faster than by resolution or by watching it yourself because people can check and bet for different fragments or watch x2 or speedread (~x5), but I doubt that policy markets can be such.
I suppose it's better try to write in comment, considering Ai function, than change description again: it occurred to me, that I don't need at all trading here after I already will not be able to do anything about it, so I need to close/halt trade (I set it to Sep 16, day after expected date of release) even if I am still going to resolve it only on Oct 21 when I actually will think what I need to predict, not what I will think I will think.