This market resolves to YES in the event that I judge that Isaac King has incorrectly resolved a market before 2030. I will exclude markets that specifically reference me, as well as self-referential markets.
Close date updated to 2024-12-30 11:59 pm
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@Elspeth I'm surprised this market is still open. The following market should satisfy the resolution, it did so for several other markets on the same topic
@firstuserhere It looks like this user was indeed banned. What's the reason that this market was resolved incorrectly?
@Elspeth isaac wasn't paying attention and hastily resolved the market to YES initially. The description says "Resolves N/A if Mark gets banned or quits the site.".
Isaac realised, and agreed that he misresolved. He then asked the admins to undo the resolution, to an N/A
@Elspeth I concur that this should resolve YES. I've already resolved my own market on the same subject due to that misresolution.
Here's one that could potentially count:
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/this-market-resolves-to-whatever-pe
A user checked the API and told me what percentage it should resolve to. They seemed trustworthy, so I said I'd accept their percentage, and gave people a day to express disagreement. No one did, so I resolved to that percentage. Shortly afterwards, they told me their percentage had been incorrect. (I don't know whether this was an intentional ploy on their part or an honest mistake, though either way I won't be trusting them as much for market resolutions in the future.)
I'm not sure whether this should count as incorrect. I gave all market participants about 21 hours to notify me of any errors with my suggested resolution, and none of them did so. But apparently the resolution did end up being incorrect. (At least, according to that user. I haven't checked their math myself, which I would recommend doing before you resolve this market to YES based on this.)
I lean towards saying "not incorrect", since there's an implied "speak now or forever hold your peace" when I make a "this market will resolve to X unless somebody says something" declaration. But I don't think it would be unreasonable to count it.
@a The purpose of this market is to catch clear mistakes. That said, you're welcome to present an argument that the referrenced market was resolved incorrectly.