Will the Google search chatbot market resolve N/A?
42
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resolved Jul 1
Resolved
NO
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This can be resolved

predictedYES

Since it hasn't resolved N/A yet, it likely never will.

predictedNO

I'll say for what it's worth that I think p(n/a resolution|market would have resolved no under current definition) >> p(n/a resolution|market would have resolved yes under current definition)

ie if Google does unambiguously add bard to their search page, the market would have resolved yes under either definition so it's a lot less likely to resolve n/a than if nothing happens and so the wording debacle comes into play.

But sadly, this affects the odds of the market either way! Less downside risk to bid yes if this is true.

predictedNO

my bet is a hedge. I've held YES and NO back and forth in that market, but damn it needs to just zero out at this point

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