Will the Google search chatbot market resolve N/A?
42
844
790
resolved Jul 1
Resolved
NO
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bought Ṁ1,265 of NO

This can be resolved

predicted YES

Since it hasn't resolved N/A yet, it likely never will.

predicted NO

I'll say for what it's worth that I think p(n/a resolution|market would have resolved no under current definition) >> p(n/a resolution|market would have resolved yes under current definition)

ie if Google does unambiguously add bard to their search page, the market would have resolved yes under either definition so it's a lot less likely to resolve n/a than if nothing happens and so the wording debacle comes into play.

But sadly, this affects the odds of the market either way! Less downside risk to bid yes if this is true.

predicted NO

my bet is a hedge. I've held YES and NO back and forth in that market, but damn it needs to just zero out at this point