Will the Google search chatbot market resolve N/A?
35
closes Jul 2
20%
chance
Sort by:
Gen avatar
Genzyis predicting YES at 27%

Since it hasn't resolved N/A yet, it likely never will.

Weepinbell avatar
Weepinbellis predicting NO at 32%

I'll say for what it's worth that I think p(n/a resolution|market would have resolved no under current definition) >> p(n/a resolution|market would have resolved yes under current definition)

ie if Google does unambiguously add bard to their search page, the market would have resolved yes under either definition so it's a lot less likely to resolve n/a than if nothing happens and so the wording debacle comes into play.

But sadly, this affects the odds of the market either way! Less downside risk to bid yes if this is true.

Stralor avatar
Pat Scott🩴is predicting NO at 48%

my bet is a hedge. I've held YES and NO back and forth in that market, but damn it needs to just zero out at this point

Related markets

Will Eliezer's "If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?" market resolve N/A?41%
Why will "If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?" resolve N/A?
Is Bing's chatbot sentient? [Resolves to poll]4%
Will Bing Chat be the breakthrough for AI safety research?15%
If we survive artificial general intelligence, will Isaac King's market resolve to "none of the above" or similar?4%
By 2026, will a proeminent chatbot with some access to the internet do something actually harmful and unintended?75%
If we survive artificial general intelligence, will Isaac King's success market resolve to "none of the above"?50%
Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?35%
Conditional on Microsoft Bing using an AI/GPT module, will it be any good?80%
Will Google be worth less than OpenAI?34%
Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2050, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?51%
Will the world's first general artificial intelligence come from OpenAI? [M$300 liquidity subsidy]50%
Will AI "love bots/virtual girlfriends" be good enough to reduce the % of "unwarranted male attention" by 50% by 2027?29%
If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?81%
Will artificial intelligence be part of a solution of the NEXT Millennium Problem?50%
Will OpenAI be remembered as the Altavista of AI?48%
Will a major user-generated content side (e.g. Reddit) negotiate a commercial settlement with a start-up producing AI models (e.g. OpenAI) for training on their corpus of user-generated content?40%
Will Google begin to restrict publication of papers on AI?35%
Will artificial intelligence be part of a solution of the second Millennium Problem solved from now?71%
Will the first AI to get IMO gold have human-coded real quantifier elimination?19%