39
616
747
resolved Nov 12
Resolved
NO

An explosion hit Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital on October 17th.

This will resolve YES if the Israel Air Force or a credible* third party investigates and reports that the Israel Air Force struck the hospital, whether or not it was deliberate. It'll resolve NO if a credible* investigation concludes that it wasn't an airstrike. It'll resolve N/A if there's no such investigation; if investigations aren't conclusive; or if multiple investigations come to contradictory findings and none seem especially credible.

I'll extend the closing date if I know of any credible* investigations still in the works.


*Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, and B'Tzelem are credible enough to me. UNHRC, UNRWA, and other UN bodies aren't, but would still count if their investigations seem uncharacteristically credible. Investigations by major western media outlets like NYT, BBC, CBC, and Washington Post would count too, but routine news articles don't.

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predicted NO

At this point there's been multiple investigations finding it was likely a rocket. BBC 4 has suggested an airburst, but munitions experts contacted by BBC Verify and other outfits have contradicted that. Al Jazeera has suggested an Iron Dome missile, which would resolve this market NO regardless.

The explosion seems to have hit the parking lot. Is that still covered by this market?

bought Ṁ0 of NO

I've also just made a market with resolution based on Wikipedia, to try to remove as much subjectivity as I can:

bought Ṁ10 of YES

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