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MANIFOLD
Will I test positive for Covid on Christmas Day?
35
Ṁ690Ṁ1.9k
resolved Dec 25
Resolved
NO

Background:
I was in close contact with someone yesterday (21/12/23) for several hours who tested positive for Covid today (22/12/2023).

Resolution
Will I test positive for Covid on Christmas Day (25th December 2023)?

Resolves positive if I get a positive test result (lateral flow) on Christmas day. I will test at least 2 times, 2+ hours apart. I will test 3 times if I am showing symptoms.

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predictedYES

Did you end up getting sick?

@snazzlePop Nope! Had some very very minor symptoms after NYE - the sort you only notice when waking up. I suspect a cold was to blame for this

predictedYES

@ElliotDavies Good to hear!

Thank's a lot to everybody that traded! It was really helpful for estimating my risk of infecting others.

I tested negative on all three tests I took today. My last test was at 21:00 (CET) and was preformed on a lateral flow manifactured by a different company to the other two (i.e. trying to control for faulty tests).

2 more negative tests.

predictedYES

@ElliotDavies How’s that slightly sore throat?

@snazzlePop It had disappeared within 24 hours. I suspect it was just me eating too much sugar in the lead up to Christmas, and not drinking enough water.

Negative test result

A bit late, but paxlovid 100% absolute works. But you have to get it within 5 days. I got an online doc to prescribe for me, it cost like 99$month for the meet, then i cancelled the subscription. got paxlovid paid by insurance at the pharma, it immediately worked to destroy covid

set the meeting w/doc tonight, meet tomorrow ~8am, you will be better by day after tomorrow

paxlovid actually works, via a known mechanism to destroy covid replication

EDIT: The FDA is being resistant, so to get around it they require the doc to fill in some form saying "this is needed here"; so make sure to [honestly] answer at least one of the questions positively to trigger "MAGIC FDA-avoiding powers" in the doctor, and obviously take the contraindications seriously and follow doc's advice

Edit 2: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir

Edit 3: it worked like a charm for me, didn't completely kill the virus (which is still declining about 9 days later) but the change day over day from it was very very noticeable, after an initial "bad, good, bad again" swinginess.

@Ernie not sure what the deal with getting it prescribed in Denmark would be. Possibly quite hard during Christmas?

@ElliotDavies Ah got it. In the US they have new quick prescription online doctors now, which help whenever. Also I found this - not sure if the current status. https://www.thelocal.dk/20221020/denmark-receives-supply-of-covid-19-medicine-paxlovid

As long as there is enough enough for everyone, I think taking the trouble to cut it off early helps.

Feeling a slight sore throat tonight, but it's only been 28 hours.

I realize this differs from your market specification, but fwiw, I think there's a 33-40%+ likelihood that you'll develop COVID in the next week or so. (I think duration of exposure is a huge factor, and I understand you sustained close contact for several hours.) I'm less confident that you'll be symptomatic or have sufficient antigens to cross the detection threshold of a rapid test by 25-12-2023.

Regardless, I'd advise immediately start taking 2000 IUs of Vitamin D each day (if you don't already) and consider acquiring some Zinc supplements too. I think both will yield more benefits if taken before any acute illness or at least in the prodromal stage.

Wishing you good health! 🤞🏽

@snazzlePop oh thanks for flagging this - I have vitamin D handy so I'll start taking that now (75mg).

Anything in particular to consider when purchasing zinc?

@ElliotDavies Nothing really in particular. I'd suggest taking it with a meal though (less likely to give you GI discomfort).
I take 50mg zinc/day whenever I feel the first hint of an illness, and I'd also take it if I knew I recently had a high-risk exposure (such as your own), but I don't otherwise routinely take it as a supplement. (Whereas I take Vit D & fish oil every morning, regardless of any illness/exposure.)

This market (and interestingely not the fact that I tested positive myself yesterday) made me look up current incubation periods. According to https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/yellowbook/2024/infections-diseases/covid-19

For pre-Omicron variants, the median incubation period is 5 days with a range of 2–14 days after initial exposure; studies of the Omicron variant have estimated the incubation period to be 2–3 days.

Good luck and happy holidays!

How ventilated was the space you were in?

Vaccination and prior infection status? Age? Any other risk factors we should know about?

Obviously no obligation to answer but those are the ones I'd find most relevant.

@EvanDaniel Happy to share

Space was fairly ventilated, with windows being opened and closed throughout the night, and an air filter was operating. With that said, I would think these considerations would be crowded out by the fact I was in close conversation (<1m) with the person that tested positive.

Double vaccinated back in the day, and caught omicron around the time it was freshly mutated. No covid since then (to my knowledge). 26 years old, Mildly asthmatic .

@ElliotDavies
I'm understanding this to mean you got two of the original pfizer/moderna vaccines in early 2021 and no booster doses since then, and that you caught omicron covid in late 2021 or early 2022.

@snazzlePop exactly yes