I reserve the right to change the contents of this description (including resolution criteria) for the first 24 hours. Any changes would be made in good faith.

Background
https://taisc.org/taisc or https://archive.fo/dM1MF

Resolution Criteria:

• I recognise the Treaty would be likely to be modified before being passed into law. By TAISC treaty I mean (1) Establishing an JAISL (2) forming a IAISC (3) Banning large training runs not under JAILS remit

• The market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one sovereign state has completed the formal procedures to ratify the AI Treaty and deposited its instrument of ratification with the treaty's depositary by December 31st, 2030.

• The market will resolve to "No" if zero sovereign states have formally ratified and deposited their instruments of ratification for the AI Treaty by December 31st, 2030.

• "Ratification" is defined as the state expressing consent to be legally bound by the treaty under international law through ratification, acceptance, approval, accession or other established means.

• The treaty depositary records will be the authoritative source for verifying completed ratifications.

• If a country signs the treaty before 2030 but does not formally ratify and deposit by the resolution date, it does not count as a ratification.

• If the treaty has not entered into legal force by the resolution date, individual ratifications by countries will still count for market resolution purposes.

Treaty on Artificial Intelligence Safety and Cooperation (TAISC)

A Framework for an AI Safety Treaty