Recent trends have seen US Presidents getting quite old, but modern 'medicine' seems to offer many tools to combat baldness.

I'm asking if there will be a US president after 2025 and before February 2049 who is obviously bald. That includes "I'm bald and not afraid to admit it" and "I'm bald and trying to hide, but you caught me with definitive evidence". It does not include "I'm a coward and do not want to admit I am bald so I am hiding it". (See below for a specific note about Donald Trump.)

Deadline

The deadline for this market is 1 February 2049. At the start of that day, if no US President has been bald since market creation, it resolves No. The market will resolve Yes promptly if there is a bald US President before that day.

Level of baldness

The level of baldness required for this market to resolve Yes is based on two separate criteria and also a general comparative test. Only one of these three tests needs to be a Yes to resolve Yes.

For each of these tests, there must be photo or video evidence presented in the comment section from at least three separate days showing the hair feature on a President while they are President. The pictures should be clear, convincing, and not edited in a way that makes the President look more bald then they truly are. If they cover up or hide their baldness most of the time, you will need to find two instances that the bald area is revealed.

I am refusing to use any established "balding scale" type of terminology for this market.

For balding around the crown of the head, the clearly bald area should be at least 4 inches in diameter and obviously bald. Just thinning in the back would not be enough. The scalp should be clearly visible.

This is a Yes on the crown criterion:

This is NOT enough for a Yes on the crown criterion:

For balding near the front of the head and the hair line, the hair needs to be thin enough that you can easily see the scalp across the entire upper forehead area. If there is thin, wispy hair in this area and you can easily see the scalp through it, that is enough for a Yes. If the person appears to be balding progressively on the sides, but they maintain a thick tuft in the center, that will not count as a Yes on its own.

This is a Yes on the hair line criterion:

This is NOT enough for a Yes on the hair line criterion:

Also NOT enough:

General comparative test

By the rating scale above, here is where I currently sit on the last few presidents. I didn't spend a ton of time on this and you should try to convince me to change my rating if you disagree, which would be a good exercise for the market:

Trump - No so far, seems to do a good job at covering.

Biden - Yes, especially obvious late in term. May have been a No on the first day of his term.

Obama - No.

Bush 2 - No.

Clinton - No.

Bush 1 - No.

Carter - No.

Ford - Yes. Probably the best benchmark here for someone who is close to the line.

Johnson - No. Some obvious receding in front but retained enough hair to be a No.

Kennedy - No.

Eisenhower - Yes.

Truman - No from all I can see.

Any President who is "at least as bald" as any of the Yesses is enough to resolve Yes regardless of if they meet the exact criteria above. Any president who is more bald than all the Nos and less bald than all the Yesses will be worthy of extreme scrutiny but not a guarantee either way. This is entirely based on my own personal judgement.

But who counts as President? What about acting president for 25 minutes? What about blah blah blah.....

For the purposes of this market, the "President" means the actual President, either elected and then inaugurated, or a Vice President who succeeds to the role when vacated by the President. None of the "Acting President" sequences, late succession pathways, colonoscopy watchman, etc. will count. We're talking about a plain old president serving the remainder of an established term.

I think Trump is bald and here are 17 photos...

For the purposes of this market, I am making a special exception for Donald Trump. I'm really actually not interested in resolving based on whether he is or is not currently presenting as bald, hiding from being bald, or any other such theories. I'm much more interested in future Presidencies. But if Mr. Trump makes a clear and distinct change in his hair's appearance that puts him in the "very obviously bald" category, and maintains that appearance indefinitely, then I will resolve Yes. None of the images I have seen to date would convince me to resolve Yes based on his appearance over the last ~10 years. If his hair continues to show a natural progression of thinning over the next couple years without a dramatic and sudden shift, do not expect this market to resolve Yes based on that.

Is there a separate rule for non-men Presidents?

No. Same criteria apply. If it's a lady and you think she's wearing a wig, you'll have to find several separate clear and convincing photos of her not wearing a wig. The same would apply for a man you suspect of using some type of wig. You have to demonstrate it with proof, not just hunches.

What if someone admits to being bald but they never display it?

The rule is, we need to see it. They can talk all they want about baldness treatment, wigs, whatever, but if we don't see it, it doesn't count. Even if they say "I'm totally bald."

What if they go bald due to a medical condition? What if they shave their head?

If they suffer from a medical ailment or any temporary condition that results in the loss of hair which is expected to regrow into a normal head of hair, the market will NOT resolve Yes from that unless they turn out to be actually bald later on. Shaving their head voluntarily and regularly, to maintain a bald look intentionally, would be a Yes. Shaving their head one time for a charity would NOT be a Yes. Losing all their hair from a cancer treatment with the expectation that it would regrow would NOT be a yes.

If you have other edge cases, ask about them in the comments below.