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MANIFOLD
Will Primoz Roglic lead the 2023 Vuelta a Espana GC for one day?
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resolved Sep 17
Resolved
NO

Either awarded red jersey on podium or leading during the stage after another rider has pulled out would count.

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This should be slightly higher than the chances that he wins the overall GC (currently at 15%):

predictedNO

@egroj I have a substantial Yes position on Primoz winning over there at 16.8% and in here I have a moderate No position at 34%. I'm too conflicted to move either one because I still don't trust Sepp Kuss won't wake up one day and decide to pull a Remco.

predictedYES

@Eliza I think we'll know for sure after L'Angliru, I have my mana on Kuss being able to hold at around 65% (with an order for YES at 65% your market that closes tomorrow if you want to bid against it), if not I think Roglic will win slightly above Jonas.