Race starts 26 August, ends 17 September.
There are alternate versions of this market with different closing times or characteristics:
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3.00
@meefburger This is a joke related to the 2007 Tour de France. Team Jumbo Visma was previously known as Rabobank:
Gourette, France - One of it's biggest stars is already gone, and now so is the leader of the Tour de France.
Michael Rasmussen was removed from the race by his Rabobank team after winning Wednesday's stage, a day after Alexandre Vinokourov and his team withdrew when the star cyclist tested positive for a banned blood transfusion.
"Michael Rasmussen has been sent home for violating (the team's) internal rules," Rabobank spokesman Jacob Bergsma told The Associated Press by phone.
The expulsion, which Bergsma said was ordered by the Dutch team's sponsor, was linked to "incorrect" information that Rasmussen gave to the team's sports director over his whereabouts last month. Rasmussen missed random drug tests May 8 and June 28, saying he was in Mexico. But a former rider, Davide Cassani, told Denmark's Danmarks Radio on Wednesday that he had seen Rasmussen in Italy in mid-June.
@Eliza Ahhh, yeah. I had completely forgotten about the Rasmussen Mexico thing. (Also I forgot that being on the same team gives somewhat correlated P(leave the race) for Rog, Sepp, and Jan)
@Iamczecksy This seems right. Jonas seems strong right now. Geraint Thomas, fwiw, called this. "“If he’ll win? I think it’s more down to his teammates, really, if they will attack him or not,” Thomas said Monday. “I won’t be surprised if they did, to be honest.”"
I’m really interested to see how JV plays 13. I find myself expecting Roglic to overtake Sepp soon, though I can’t pony to exactly why other than experience.
I’m curious what the team talk is right now in terms of support. Jonas has in a few places said he will happily ride for Sepp and I think that’s sincere. I don’t know about Primoz. I do think it’s an interesting play for JV to go all in on Sepp, perhaps after 13 if he does well (gains on both Primoz and Jonas). It solves how the road will decide question while also presenting a fantastic third solution, and evading Jonas/Primoz rivalries.
I tend to think Sepp can pull this off. I think we should feel somewhat unsure what his capabilities really are when riding for a win, not for Jonas and Sepp. The mental game is probably a bigger question. It took Jonas a year to figure it out, but Sepp has also ridden his fair share of world tours.
I think 15% odds seem fair, if not low for a guy who is leading after 12 stages. If this was Tadej this market would have him at 50%.
@JCE Would also be curious to hear how Sepp is being characterized in foreign media right now. Velo is a Sepp stan so they’re all in on “he could do it.” Doesn’t Spanish media like him a lot?
Hi everyone, thanks for joining.
There have been multiple Markets recently and discussions regarding the practice of having markets open through the actual resolution criteria event. In an effort to try seeing things another way, I've created alternate GC markets that close after the 1st rest day and after the 2nd rest day.
Your mana will be tied up for 1-2 weeks so I have subsidized these with 6 answers each plus 100 mana. I'm very curious to see how we can perform on these and also whether people are brave enough to actually make predictions 1-2 weeks out.