This is supposed to be related to the 'big pivot'. I have a suspicion that Manifold wishes more people paid them money.
I will attempt to use the TXNS table to see how many users bought mana in March 2024 (UTC) and how many users bought mana in June 2024 (UTC). If the June count of users is greater, resolves Yes. Otherwise, resolves No.
If the same user purchases mana more than once, that only counts as one transaction.
I don't have time to go get the March count right now but if no one else reports it I will get to it eventually.
If access to the TXNS table or other ways to find this figure are no longer public, I will attempt to get the information by asking Manifold directly.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ76 | |
| 2 | Ṁ57 | |
| 3 | Ṁ22 | |
| 4 | Ṁ17 | |
| 5 | Ṁ9 |
March 2024: 157 total MANA_PURCHASE transactions from 86 unique users
April 2024: 134 total MANA_PURCHASE transactions from 70 unique users
May 2024: 157 total MANA_PURCHASE transactions from 112 unique users
June 2024: 225 total MANA_PURCHASE transactions from 158 unique users
Resolving Yes early because June is already greater than March.
To the original point of this market: Yes, more people bought mana, but the amounts are not world-changing for Manifold. Based on the stats page, it looks like roughly $10,000 worth of mana was sold in both March and June. So, more users, smaller amounts per user?