Resolves Yes if the May 2026 banzuke comes out and Enho is listed for Juryo. Resolves No otherwise.
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@traders Gabrielle was kind enough to leave a large Yes order at 99% so if you want to sell out before the banzuke is released at the end of April, you can do so!
@Eliza actually the criteria say banzuke release. I will place a 99% Yes order after the announcement if anyone wants to sell out.
Winning records ahead of Enho:
Ms1 Tochitaikai 4-3
Ms2 Hakuyozan 5-2
Ms2 Okaryu 6-1
Ms3 Takakento 4-3
Ms4 Enho 5-2
He should be 4th in line because 5-2 from Ms4 is better than 4-3 from Ms3. I would be shocked if any other thing happened. but sometimes Sumo is very very weird.
There should be 4 demotions:
J14 Kotokuzan 4-9
J13 Shimazuumi 2-9-2
J12 Tsurugisho 0-13
J13 Fujitensei 5-9
The first 3 are for sure gone. Maybe Fujitensei ends 6-9 and only gets a single rank demotion? Seems like a huge stretch and would be abnormal.
If this was any other guy than Hakuho's stablemate/friend I would have it over 95%!
The match scheduled between Hakuyozan and Takakento tomorrow seals it. If Enho loses to Nishikigi tomorrow, Nishikigi will be safe, but Enho will finish exactly 4th in the promotion queue, behind Okaryu, the Hakuyozan/Takakento winner, and Tochitaikai. There will be exactly 4 demotions from Juryo: Tsurugisho, Shimazuumi, Kotokuzan, and Fujitensei.
This just got a little simpler but not a lot -- Wakanofuji pulled off a miracle of balance and recovery to win his 7th so there is no more mega playoff on the cards.
Okaryu won to lock in the promotion position ahead of Enho.
The Ms1e lost so he won't promote anymore.
The Ms1w is 4-3 which is good but not a guarantee for promotion. Enho at 5-2 is prooooobably behind him but it's close? At 6-1 he would be ahead for sure.
The two 4-2 guys ahead of him would certainly get priority if they all ended 5-2.
So best case, he wins for 6-1 and is in the second promotion slot with a guarantee of being promoted.
Worst case, he loses for 5-2 and could realistically be anywhere from 3rd to 5th depending on other results.
It looks highly likely there will be at least 4 spots open. I guess I'll buy a little higher than 81 now.
@Panfilo he's 5-1 and the question is not nearly as interesting as it was an hour ago.
Before 5 wins we were mostly betting on if he would get to 5 wins. Now it's just about whether he finishes 5-2 and the Sumo Masters decide to give Hakuho's friend some sort of weird punishment tour by refusing to promote him. Which is certainly a thing but I'm not sponsoring that for the same amount.