Will anyone who does not meet the stated minimum requirements be added in the first wave of the Creator Partner program?
resolved Mar 2

Here are the current minimum requirements:

Minimum Requirements:

  • 10 markets in the last 90 days.

  • Average of 10 unique traders per market.

  • 500 unique traders.

This resolves Yes if anyone in the first wave (defined in the other market) does not actually meet these requirements. No otherwise.


Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
Sort by:

Also, for the record, this market was created in response to me seeing KeenenWatts's partner page:

@Eliza for the purpose of this market, not meeting the requirements is done at the time the decision to make them creator partner was done, or at the time they get the badge? Cuz I could spam trade in his markets and get it over the line..?

bought Ṁ10 NO

@Bayesian 😂

@nikki wait no don't do ittttt

@Bayesian 😭

I object to this and believe the spirit of the market dictates that these shenanigans do not count!

@Bayesian Market manipulation is always encouraged!

@Bayesian This line of reasoning is very unlikely to change my mind, and also, KeenenWatts is not the furthest from meeting the criteria of all the accepted creators.

As noted in the other market (the one this points to to define the first wave).....SirSalty has announced the first wave but they are not yet officially listed on the site.

At least two people included in the list (I did not check exhaustively after finding two) did not meet the original criteria. So, as long as those two remain on the list, this is very likely to resolve Yes. I am going to hold off for right now though -- we can resolve this based on the Yes results in the other market.

Note that if the minimum requirements change between the time this market was created and the release of the first wave, the minimum requirements listed in the description are the ones this resolves based on.

For example, if one of the requirements listed here is changed, reduced, removed, increased, between now and whenever the first wave is released, ignore the new version.

I am writing this right now, when the requirements still have not changed, as a preemptive measure in case they do change.

This is not a change to the market. The description remains the same. It already says "these requirements". I am just making sure everyone understands.

bought Ṁ250 YES

....and now I see that changes to the minimum requirements have been announced. Keep in mind that this question resolves based on the original minimum requirements from the description....

Happy trading!

I read this as strong evidence for someone in the first wave not meeting minimum requirements: https://manifold.markets/Eliza/who-will-be-in-the-first-wave-of-pa#9wc2p6nx8be

bought Ṁ20 NO

Are you planning to check manually whether someone has passed the criteria?

@esusatyo I will hunt them down. Never fear.

53% chance, eh? Who's going to be brave enough to push it below 49% for the first time?

@Eliza This feels like a game of chicken that we're playing against Manifold.

How many users have publicly stated that they do not meet the criteria and have applied already (or will apply before tomorrow)? I think I saw at least one or two.

Based on the parts I've read, it would take someone with a lot of clout to apply to bypass the minimum requirements for the first wave. Maybe a semi-celebrity type person with a lot of followers but few markets created? Or someone who can convincingly show why their average traders per market is below 10, but only due to the timing of recently created markets?

Is there anyone trading over 50% on the /Eliza/who-will-be-in-the-first-wave-of-pa market that does not meet the minimum criteria?

I just noticed this is on the individual partner page, right under the stats box:

There are certain circumstances where we may accept applications outside of these criteria. Some instances may include having an established audience on other platforms or a history of exceptional forecasting.

So they have explicitly written into the program that "yes, it is possible to be accepted even if you don't meet these requirements".

bought Ṁ10 NO

Why would they do this lol.

@Joshua It's Manifold. Why not?

You don't think any creator who doesn't meet the requirements could convince them to get added?

@Eliza I think there are going to be a lot of creators interested who are just a slight bit below 10 traders per market.

@Joshua Because they want top notch stock close highers ofc.

bought Ṁ10 NO

@Eliza I don't think these requirements are very onerous and they want to be selective.