MANIFOLD
Will anyone bring evidence that a player ("curler") fell on the ice during Curling at the 2026 Olympics?
9
Ṁ1kṀ1k
Feb 22
12%
chance
3

Bring photo evidence or equivalent, to the comment section, that a player fell on the ice during a match.

It has to be a player who is in the match being played. They have to fall on the ice.

I am the final arbiter of what counts as a fall.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
reposted

So far 14/49 Mixed Doubles matches are complete, roughly 5% of all throws in the entire Olymipcs. NO FALLS HAVE BEEN REPORTED.

Do you have an idea of what kind of distinction you might make between a slip (or some other word that better represents a not quite fall) and a fall?

Would you consider a loss of balance that requires catching themselves with one or both hands on the ice a fall or would that display of Olympian athleticism save them from an official "fall" statistic?

Obviously we can't cover every version of a fall I'm just looking to get an idea of how strict you might be.

@Zeolite ANYTHING I SAY HERE IS NON BINDING AND I RETAIN THE ABILITY TO RESOLVE BASED ON WHATEVER EVIDENCE IS PROVIDED IN THE FUTURE. THIS TEXT WILL NOT BE ADDED TO THE MARKET DESCRIPTION BECAUSE IT IS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW INTO MY THOUGHTS AND NOT A COMPREHENSIVE CRITERIA

---

  • The market title and description both mention only "falling".

  • This is not a /Luca3f84/will-joe-biden-trip-up-or-fall-over market. A "trip up" is not a fall unless you "fall".

  • In the regular course of a curling match, it is normal for hands, knees, and other non-foot body parts to come in contact with the ice. That alone is not sufficient to count as a "fall".

  • There is no minimum vertical threshold to count as a fall. You could be standing up like a tree and fall, or you could be squatting low to the ground and fall.

---

IN THE END I WILL KNOW IT WHEN I SEE IT AND I WILL ALSO GIVE A DECISIVE RULING PROMPTLY IF EVIDENCE IS PROVIDED.

reposted

There are 49 mixed doubles matches in the tournament. Each player throws 20 stones per match for a total of 80 stones in each of those 49 matches. That's 3920 stones.

Then in Men's and Women's, there are 49 matches each. Each player also throws 20 stones. But there are 4 players per team, so that's 160 stones per match. Add another 15680 stones.

So rough approximation 20,000 stones thrown in the tournament. Every match is on video as far as I can tell. Do you think the rate of a player falling on the ice is greater or less than one in 20,000 throws?

Schwaller of Suisse has FALLEN but it was not on the ice and not during the actual match and also not the one who was actually the player.

@Eliza It was a 1 year old child.

reposted

So far no one is brave enough to provide an estimate. Are you a coward?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy