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MANIFOLD
Will any team have 5 out of 25 riders at the front of the 2026 UCI World Championship Road Race (Men Elite)
10
Ṁ1kṀ12k
resolved Sep 28
Resolved
NO

Rough sketch of the rules:

  • 60km or less to go

  • There must be 5 riders from one nation within the first 25 riders total in the race

  • The group with the 25th rider must NOT contain the 40th rider at the time

So it's okay if there is a G1, G2, G3, etc., as long as the group with the 25th rider is not a huge peloton. The group that contains the 25th rider must NOT contain the 40th rider. So if you had G1 with 5 riders and G2 with 30 riders, then the 25th rider is in G2 and we can count it.

If G1 is 20 and G2 is 40, then it can't count.

Resolves Yes if someone provides a convincing evidence chain that this happened at any point. Resolves No at the end of the race otherwise.

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bought Ṁ500 NO

Denmark was very very close but I don't think they got it. After the penultimate lap they had 5 in the top 26 but based on how the groups finished I doubt anyone will be able to show evidence they were ever 5 out of 25. I'll wait a day or so to resolve just in case.

bought Ṁ50 YES

I got confused and thought this was for the Womens race. In the Womens race, Italy did it.

Now that I see how hard this is, it seems like the men won't be able to do it, but what do I know.