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MANIFOLD
Will any team have 5 out of 25 riders at the front of the 2026 UCI World Championship Road Race (Men Elite)
1
Ṁ1kṀ60
Sep 27
47%
chance

Rough sketch of the rules:

  • 60km or less to go

  • There must be 5 riders from one nation within the first 25 riders total in the race

  • The group with the 25th rider must NOT contain the 40th rider at the time

So it's okay if there is a G1, G2, G3, etc., as long as the group with the 25th rider is not a huge peloton. The group that contains the 25th rider must NOT contain the 40th rider. So if you had G1 with 5 riders and G2 with 30 riders, then the 25th rider is in G2 and we can count it.

If G1 is 20 and G2 is 40, then it can't count.

Resolves Yes if someone provides a convincing evidence chain that this happened at any point. Resolves No at the end of the race otherwise.

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