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Race starts today, have fun.

I might need to close this question because I have so much liquidity on the answers. Maybe we can transition back to the other one in the meantime? Not sure.

Main issue is if I leave it open and Tadej crashes out, I lose like 8000 mana instantly and for absolutely no reason. But if I close it before he crashes, I can't really reopen it later because either I have to trade into everyone else's limit orders and 'steal' their mana, or just let someone else steal mine.

This is really suboptimal. I asked the team a month ago to implement the withdrawal and addition of liquidity on multiple choice and it didn't happen.

@Eliza I'm going to start out by setting a tentative closing time around the time the race is expected to start. If 'nothing' changes right away, maybe we can reopen it in a few days or something. Maybe I will need to create another new version of the same market later on?

This is a bad feeling, I was really hoping the team would help give creators tools to make markets with more than just a thousand in liquidity.

@Eliza Probably a stupid question: If I create a market with M1000 liquidity, I get back the M1000 after close (or after resolution?), correct? I didn't know that. Or is this just about liquidity added after creation and creating tge question costs/destroys the M1000?

@Primer you get back the amount that the pool earns at resolution. If the pool has 400 yes shares and the market resolves yes, those 400 mana go to you.

@Eliza Thanks! Still don't understand at all though. Unfortunatelly, the FAQ is not very helpful either. If you happen to know some proper documentation, I'd appreciate a link.

Here's the FAQ, which leaves more questions than it answers:

What is the liquidity pool?

The liquidity in a market is the amount of capital available for traders to trade against. Markets with more liquidity are typically more trustworthy.

The greater the liquidity, the harder it is to shift the probability.

This allows users to bet more mana to move the probability to where they want it.

Increases room for profit and the incentive to bet.

Makes it more difficult for one individual to temporarily skew the probability with a big bet.

All markets start with some liquidity from the cost of creating a market. The entirety of the initial cost goes towards liquidity. Some types of markets cost more due to requiring a higher amount of liquidity to function well.

How do I subsidise a market?

Creators of new markets by default subsidise the market liquidity pool with the creation fee.

In addition to this, anyone can add additional liquidity to markets. Click the (…) above the graph of the market.

How much mana will I get back from subsidising a market?

You should always expect to lose mana from subsidising a market.

Liquidity providers cannot withdraw the mana they have spent to subsidise a market, however, they will receive back some of their mana when the market resolves, if there's any left over.

The amount of mana you will get back depends on how much the probability has moved from when you subsidised the market. The more it has moved, the less you will get back.

@Primer

1. Read this:

https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Maniswap-ce406e1e897d417cbd491071ea8a0c39

2. Example, here is the 'pool' from a certain market:

If that market resolves No right now, all 194 No shares in the pool are worth 1 mana each. That goes to the person who put the mana in the pool.

If that market resolves Yes right now, all 5167 Yes shares in the pool are worth 1 mana each. That goes to whoever put the mana in the pool. (Subsidy via market creation or adding liquidity.)

@Eliza Thanks! I'm probably still missing some cruxial insight.

Taking your example, this sounds like:

• Create market for Ṁ1000 (subsidy = creation cost)

• Sometime later the pool has 5,167 YES, 194 NO

• Market resolves Yes

• Creator gets Ṁ5167

But that's not the correct interpretation.

Which of these are correct?

1. If the example market was initialized with 50%, the pool starts with 1000 YES, 1000 NO.

2. Now trading happens = AMM and Maniswap happens

3. By trading, traders add to the pool via some Maniswap magic.

4. By this Maniswap magic, the pool then has 5,167 YES, 194 NO.

5. In this process, the initial 1000 YES, 1000 NO are converted into X YES, Y NO, where X+Y = 2000

6. (Assuming 5 is correct and further assuming traders exclusively bought NO shares (thus there being lots of YES in the pool (might have gotten this wrong though))) The creator now holds 1806 YES, 194 NO of the shares in the pool.

7. If the creator resolves YES, Ṁ1806 go into their balance.

8. (Alternatively, if 5 is incorrect) X+Y != 2000, values can be calculated according to the formulas on notion, and the numbers in 6, 7 change accordingly.

I have never observed Ṁ going back into my balance after resolving a market, nor have I been notified of this happening. So pretty sure 7 is wrong. Did I just miss this or did I misunderstand?

Primer-level-dumbed-down example A:

I create a standard YES/NO market with Ṁ100 liquidity by paying Ṁ100 out of my balance of Ṁ500, leaving me with Ṁ400. The pool should have 100 YES, 100 NO. Nobody trades. I resolve YES. What is my balance now?

Primer-level-dumbed-down example B:

Same as A, but you created the market, and I merely took Ṁ100 out of my balance of Ṁ500 and added it as liquidity to your market, leaving me with Ṁ400. The pool should have 200 YES, 200 NO. Nobody trades, you resolve YES. What is my balance now?

@Primer

Primer-level-dumbed-down example A:

Almost everything in that is irrelevant. The pool has 100 Yes shares, you get 100 mana when it resolves.

Primer-level-dumbed-down example B:

You put in 50% of the liquidity so you get 50% back. The pool has 200 mana so I get 100 and you get 100.

Taking your example, this sounds like:

• Create market for Ṁ1000 (subsidy = creation cost)

• Sometime later the pool has 5,167 YES, 194 NO

• Market resolves Yes

• Creator gets Ṁ5167

But that's not the correct interpretation.

That is the correct interpretation. You would get back 5167 if you were the only person who put mana in the pool.

I have never observed Ṁ going back into my balance after resolving a market, nor have I been notified of this happening.

This happens every single time you resolve a market, but the notification is combined with the balance change for any shares you profited.

@Eliza Thank you! And thanks you especially for your patience.

Mind: blown.

In case I'm not the only one who was almost completely unaware of this: I checked dumbed-down A and Eliza is indeed 100% correct.

I THINK MAGNUS CARLSEN WILL WIN

@Eliza i would add primoz. i'd buy him higher than remco is right now

@JCE i'll think about it, but if I add him, I will probably have to buy no shares... I'm not sure I can handle that. I'm only allowed to own Yes shares in him. Maybe you can stock up on some Other for now. I'm afraid Roglic will be trading below Lipowitz in a totally open market.

@Eliza nahhhh too much experience! has anyone made a podium market yet?

@JCE Go for it!

Can you add Matteo Jorgenson?

@ZacharyKleinfa41 he's not the leader of his team and I don't see that he would trade above 1% which is the threshold for even being able to buy No shares, so I won't add him unless something changes.

You can buy Yes shares in Other in the meantime and if he's added you would already own him. Or you can use this other market:

/Eliza/who-will-win-the-2025-tour-de-franc

@Eliza basically, the more <1% answers exist, the more it skews the percentages on all the other answers.

🤔

@Eliza If anyone is a Remco doubter you can buy into my limit order for the rest of the day!

Nice to have a market with liquidity, thanks @Eliza

I'm updating up on Jonas, he was superior in the TT today at Dauphine, seems to be in top form, and Visma looks every day better, Jorgenson had a great TT today and WvA is improving. The team will play a huge role.

Another good market from @egroj :

/egroj/will-tadej-pogacar-win-the-2025-tou