Who will win 1.UWT races in the 2024 UCI Mens Elite road cycling season?
3
21
แน€280
Nov 1
14%
Tadej Pogacar
7%
Remco Evenepoel
4%
Wout Van Aert
16%
Mathieu van der Poel
11%
Jasper Philipsen
0.7%
Canceled
6%
Arnaud De Lie
41%
Other

This market resolves 5% to each 1.UWT race winner.

There are supposed to be 20 1.UWT races in the 2024 season.

If one guy wins 3 races, he resolves to 15%. If someone wins 1 race, he resolves to 5%.

If a race is canceled, it resolves 5% to the Canceled option.


In general, if you think someone is going to win 2 races, and not 3, bet them to 10%. If that means you bought No shares, that's just fine. If you bought Yes shares, that's also fine. Your No shares would resolve to 0.90 mana each and your Yes shares would resolve to 0.10 mana each. Bet the answers to the probability you think they will resolve to. Don't worry about whether you hold Yes or No.

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