Which riders will be announced for Team Visma | Lease a Bike for the 2025 season?
7
65
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2025
50%
Jan Tratnik
58%
Koen Bouwman
50%
Mick van Dijke
50%
Tim van Dijke
52%
Milan Vader
62%
Michel Hessmann
90%
Olav Kooij
75%
Wout van Aert
91%
Christophe Laporte
92%
Jonas Vingegaard

Basic question: Which riders will be announced as riders for the 2025 season with Team Visma. Lease a Bike?

ANNOUNCED. Not signed. Not "wait til they actually ride". This resolves on announcements.

If the team merges, changes sponsor, whatever, this probably still covers the new team. If it is obvious that it should not cover the new team, we can talk about what to do then. If they cease to exist, things will probably resolve No instead of N/A.

For riders on the 2024 roster:

If the team announces an extension publicly for the 2025 season (or longer), resolves Yes promptly. If it is common knowledge that they will ride for the team or have a 2025 contract, that is not enough to resolve yes. It has to be an announcement of a new, longer contract. Example: If Kooij announces an extension to 2027, he resolves Yes promptly.

If a different team announces a signing for 2025, resolves No promptly.

If there is no announcement about 2025, we're going to wait until the UCI website or team confirms they are on the 2025 squad.


For riders not on the 2024 roster (transfers in):

Resolves Yes if the team announces a signing. Resolves No if some other team announces a signing.

If there is an announcement that would lead to a prompt Yes or No resolution, but there is doubt about the claim or people are unsure of it for some reason, we can wait until it is more clear, even as long as the UCI website or official team roster for 2025. Example: Team accidentally announces on social media then immediately retracts --> Don't resolve yet. Example: Visma claims they signed Cian and Bora immediately counter-claims he's still for them --> Don't resolve yet. (If it resolves before the report is retracted, then a new answer can be created but it will not be unresolved.)

If some rider resolves Yes or No based on the criteria, and then new info comes out that puts that rider in question again, we can add a new option for that player, but we are not going to re-resolve or unresolve the earlier one. For example, if we had resolved Cian Yes for Bora 2024, and then there was word he might be leaving, we would not unresolve that, we would create a new answer for Cian.

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I have a whole collection of these "will be announced" markets and just made a clarifying post on the LIDL-Trek one. This one has the most traders so I just want to mention it here since I'm sure there is a lot of overlap:

https://manifold.markets/Eliza/which-riders-will-be-announced-for-88cbf630487d#UMfA9qxcczMZMkmDjOIA

Specifically, I'm trying to make sure the resolution criteria are fair so we all understand what things will cause a resolution before 2025.

Jonas Vingegaard
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why was Jonas so low? I don't see him in any other team