UCI World Tour Relegation Watch 2023-2025: Which teams will be WorldTeams in 2026?
EF Education - EasyPost
Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale
Lotto Dstny
Movistar Team
Intermarche - Wanty
Israel - Premier Tech
Team Jayco - AlUla
Team dsm-firmenich PostNL
ARKEA - B&B Hotels
Astana Qazaqstan Team
Tudor Pro Cycling Team
Uno-X Mobility
Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team

The current UCI World Tour cycle runs for three seasons from 2023 through 2025. Teams have been told (and the rules explain) that the sum of their UCI points for the 2023, 2024, and 2025 seasons will be part of the criteria ("sporting criterion", among other requirements) required to maintain or gain status as WorldTeams in the 2026-2028 cycle.

This page on FirstCycling has its own best effort compilation of how this scoring method works, and the rules (Part II) 2.5.011(a) and 2.10.044 explain it in detail. The current rules say that the top 18 teams of those who apply will meet the sporting criterion.

Teams that achieve a WorldTeam status for 2026, as announced at the end of 2025, resolve Yes. Other teams resolve No.

If a team structure changes significantly, the structure that uses the points acquired at the starting date of this question to later secure a license, is the one that resolves Yes. For example, if Lidl-Trek completely quit their team but someone from Canada made Canada Cycling Team and bought their license/points, and then qualified for WorldTeam status, the answer currently listed as "LIDL-Trek" would have its name changed to "Canada Cycling Team" and then resolve Yes.

In the event of "mergers" or other team structure changes, the above rule will also apply. I will try to explain the situation as clearly as possible in the event of changes like this.

I reserve the right to resolve any answer NO early, in the event that a team ceases operations, loses their license, etc., but I do not guarantee that I will resolve any answer NO early. I will use a case-by-case determination.

I would expect the teams that qualified to be announced by December 2025.

Keep in mind the UCI may change the number of qualifying teams to be greater or smaller than 18, or other exceptions or weird things may happen. This market is NOT "who will be in the top 18 of the ranking", but "who will be announced as WorldTeams for 2026".

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bought แน€5 ARKEA - B&B Hotels YES

Arkea gained 640 points on DSM in just one day today.

@Eliza Last week or so...

227 for DSM to 1245 for Arkea. Amazing week.

I'm recording the current tally as FirstCycling guesses it to be, as of today. There is no guarantee the UCI's official tally exactly matches this, but I think it's going to be close enough to base guesses off of. The UCI site doesn't publish this exact ranking, instead we would need to look at the yearly results and compute it ourselves....

As of right now, teams like EF and above seem to be in a pretty safe zone, with a very, very larage gap over 19th place. The 1500 points between 18th and 19th seems like a lot right now! If it stays that big, maybe this will not end up being as dramatic as last time around.

What are the odds Astana knows the right magic word to overrule all the UCI regulations and just magically get another WT run?

I know teams like Uno-X do say they want to be WT, but they have a long way to go to get caught up to DSM right now. Tudor and Q36.5 seem like they just cannot close that gap no matter what they plan.

Why is IPT so low? They have over 4,000 more points than the next PT team. Despite having a strong team (perhaps excluding management) and a substantial budget. Not all riders are top-notch, nevertheless, there are enough decent riders to secure the license for 2026. If anyone doubts this, I'm willing to place a limit order at 70% up to M$5k or maybe even more. Feel free to ask.

@Lion I already have some yes shares in IPT but surely there is a nonzero chance Israel gets the Gazprom treatment before 2026? Seems like something to at least consider given the current situation over there. I know it's not quite the same shape of structure.

@Eliza IPT is sponsored by Sylvan Adams and not by Israel. I'm quite certain the UCI will never endorse this, as it's a far more politically charged and debated issue compared to the Russia situation. [Yes, there is a nonzero chance, but it's still less than 1%] I would consider creating a market for this, but it doesn't seem valuebale on Manifold. Additionally, I believe it would be relatively straightforward to switch the license to Canada. To be honest, the greatest risk of not obtaining a WT license is if Adams withdraws his sponsorship. However, I wouldn't place the likelihood of that happening at 40%.

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Please feel free to use the comment section as a place to discuss the ranking, share news about changes to the procedures, etc.! People had a lot of fun following this last time around, and it seems likely there will be some drama again this time.

I can add additional options if it looks like some team is likely to be on the bubble, but I don't really want to add every random team out there.