[20k liquidity] Cooked-o-meter: 2025 Tour de France Femmes Stage 9
7
20kṀ14k
an hour ago
19%
Pauline Ferrand-Prevot
35%
Sarah Gigante
32%
Demi Vollering
34%
Kasia Niewiadoma
41%
Cedrine Kerbaol
57%
Dominika Wlodarczyk
58%
Niamh Fisher-Black

WHO IS COOKED!?!?!?!?!

Cooked points are earned as follows based on the list of 7 top GC riders before the stage start:

1 cooked point per second behind the first listed rider at the top of Col de Joux-Plane

1 cooked point per 5 seconds behind the first listed rider at the top of Col du Corbier
1 cooked point per 10 seconds behind the first listed rider at the finish line

Add up the cooked points and rider resolves to that percentage. If the number is over 100, it's just "Yes".

  • A rider who is COOKED resolves closer to Yes.

  • A rider who is NOT COOKED resolves closer to No.

Timing/scoring:

  • If the rider is in the same group I'm going to use my personal judgement on counting seconds.

  • If it's a long string of riders all totally attached, I probably count them all same time.

  • If it's individual riders a couple seconds apart, they're probably separate.

  • I reserve the right to just use my judgement on this and you have to take whatever I decide.

  • For the finish line I'm probably going to use finish timing but if weird stuff happens I can just pick whatever.

Other stuff:

  • I reserve the right to N/A or any other weird thing if the stage doesn't happen.

  • I reserve the right to close trading the market early.

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Is PFP. COOKED??

bought Ṁ50 YES

betting on a breakaway

what’s going on in there Kramer?

Some sort of complex point-based PROB-resolution market mechanism for the women’s Tour de France, but just the 9th stage

@bens 20k liquidity, 2 traders

I'm setting the market to close shortly after the start of the stage, but I might reopen it depending on what I see.

@Eliza I think I understand your rationale for closing high liquidity markets early but it deprives us of a lot of fun

bought Ṁ500 NO

The listed riders are each the GC leader for their team AND should be close enough on GC that theoretically they're "not allowed" to go in an early breakaway. But racing is chaotic, anything can happen. I put up 20k of liquidity for this short term question.

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