Will the Trump administration offer Elon Musk a decent return for the time, effort, and political capital that he spent on backing Donald Trump?
Resolves NO if in my best guess based on public or shareable info, it looks like Donald Trump did not repay Elon Musk's backing, actively undermined Musk, decided that he was on the outs with Musk without Musk having previously clearly acted against Trump, etcetera. Resolves YES if my subjective judgment is that Musk struck first, or Trump acted in good faith until the point of a mutual break. If Trump doesn't specifically act against Musk, but Musk receives little or nothing in exchange for backing Trump, resolves NO.
This would resolve NO if Musk receives as little for backing Trump as Peter Thiel received for backing Trump in the 2016 election cycle. (E.g., Jim O'Neill was previously tipped to become FDA head, but did not become FDA head.) (I am open to hearing about how Trump repaid Thiel and I didn't hear about it yet.)
May resolve YES early if it's clear early in the Trump administration that Trump is already making a good-faith effort to fully repay Musk's backing, even if they end up on the outs later.
This isn't limited to selfish repayment; it counts if Musk obtains altruistic political desiderata.
1,000
3.00Are you looking for instances of favoritism? Because I think Musk is primarily looking for a chance to contribute and for a level playing field (e.g. Tesla not being excluded from EV talks, various bureaucracies not blocking his companies on clearly political grounds, NASA not hesitating to use SpaceX for help in a crisis, FEMA not going out of their way to avoid Starlink).
Will this resolve yes, if Musk is given a trusted role to contribute and if his companies are treated in ways that don't seem overtly political one way or the other, but without instances of what appears to be unfair favoritism where his products and offers weren't chosen on their merits?
Some examples of unfair treatment Musk received under Biden that Trump could potentially reverse or make go away:
SpaceX not awarded ~$800m contract / funds to provide internet connectivity to rural areas (https://oversight.house.gov/release/comer-probes-fcc-decision-to-revoke-starlink-funds/, https://www.theverge.com/2023/12/12/23999070/spacex-starlink-fcc-rural-digital-opportunity-fund-fcc-rejected)
Tesla snubbed at WH electric vehicle summit (https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/05/business/tesla-snub-white-house-event/index.html)
California Coastal Commission blocking SpaceX launches with the explicit reason that it was because they don't like his politics (https://pacificlegal.org/the-california-coastal-commissions-political-retribution-against-elon-musk/)
DOJ suing SpaceX for hiring discrimination against non-U.S. citizens, despite them being subject to contradictory export controls requiring them to hire only U.S. persons (https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-spacex-discriminating-against-asylees-and-refugees-hiring)
Various run-ins with the SEC over his tweets / twitter acquisition (less clear that these were particularly unfair to Musk, though a Trump admin could have plausibly leaned on various regulators to favor Musk over his counter-parties / shareholders)
Some of the above are likely to resolve favorably for Musk or go away naturally without Trump's direct intervention though, due to Republican control of congress, ordinary government proceedings, etc.
And it seems like a lot of what Musk wants is to just stop being unfairly targeted - if Trump does nothing other than leave him alone and put an end to the current targeting Musk is subject to by various government agencies, is that sufficient for YES?
@max There's an argument for Trump having repaid Musk by winning the election. If Musk believed that X would be shut down with a Harris victory, then Trump only needed to provide a win in return for that backing.
There are also potential indirect returns. If Trump negotiates deals with countries the US is currently in conflict with, then Musk could benefit from those markets.
@max I don't think I'd count just reversing the Coastal Commission thing, but I'd start to count it if SpaceX got contracts for Internet connectivity, depending on their magnitude and on the rest of the situation surrounding Trump/Elon.
@max CCC is a state agency, Biden has no control over that and even a lot of elected Democrats in the California State Government hate it too.