Will there be at least one New York Times article on AI every week in 2023?
resolved Dec 27

Resolves if there's at least one week where the NYT doesn't have an AI-related piece.

Mar 13, 10:52am: Will there be at least one New York Times on AI every week in 2023? → Will there be at least one New York Times article on AI every week in 2023?

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Reviewed the evidence and resolved Yes. I did not do a thorough review, but did spot check that the articles have the listed headlines on the listed dates, and verified that the listed dates line up with the obvious Sun-Sat definition of a week. Demanding that something publish on the 31st to count for the 1-day portion of week 53 that's actually in 2023 seems silly; 52 weeks in the year seems like the correct interpretation.

THanks @Marnix !

I'd be willing to make a very strong argument that The 2023 Good Tech Awards (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/25/technology/the-2023-good-tech-awards.html?smid=nytcore-android-share) is enough about AI companies that it'd count - any objections? I'm willing to hear arguments against it. I'm on the fence, since it's not really "about" AI per se

predicted YES

Heavily arguing this article is Not actually about AI, but is instead about the word "Hallucinate," since it's a "Word Through the Times" article. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/17/insider/ai-chatbots-humans-hallucinate.html?smid=nytcore-android-share

bought Ṁ10 NO from 92% to 91%
bought Ṁ10 YES at 91%

There's been at least one every week thus far - add in the Sam Altman and Elon coverage, there's the rest of November. December first, if TIME's PotY is AI-related, the AI coverage goes up. (Alternatively, there's almost defintely still going to be SOMETHING AI-related in the news around then, either from regulators or drama or a statement from a trade group). Mid-december rolls around, the year-in-review articles about this year start pouring in, and we get the tasty thinkpieces, and you better believe they'll involve AI

@Marnix It looks like the user who made this market is no longer on Manifold. How should it be resolved? I would have expected that a YES resolution would need to be justified with 52 URLs and the market maker's judgment on whether they are (i) real, (ii) actually AI-related.

predicted YES

@Jacy It is very easy to find an NYT article from each week that has AI or the name of an AI product in the headline

predicted YES

@oh This should be extremely easy, yeah. Let me take a look

predicted YES

ok so first things first: the way I interpreted this question was to be about articles on NYT.com, not articles in the print edition of the NYT, partially because finding articles in the print edition of the NYT by date range is actually pretty hard. I also interpreted this as articles, not podcasts (and I hope I didn't accidentally put any in here). I also interpreted this as "any article," and not just Opinion or something like that. So, with that said:

Wk 1 - Jan 6: ‘Consciousness’ in Robots Was Once Taboo. Now It’s the Last Word.

Wk 2 - Jan 13: This Film Does Not Exist

Wk 3 - Jan 16: Alarmed by A.I. Chatbots, Universities Start Revamping How They Teach

Wk 4 - Jan 26: University of Texas Will Offer Large-Scale Online Master’s Degree in A.I.

Wk 5 - Feb 3: How ChatGPT Kicked Off an A.I. Arms Race

Wk 6 - Feb 8: Disinformation Researchers Raise Alarms About A.I. Chatbots

Wk 7 - Feb 17: How ChatGPT Could Embed a ‘Watermark’ in the Text It Generates

Wk 8 - Feb 23: Science Fiction Magazines Battle a Flood of Chatbot-Generated Stories

Wk 9 - Mar 3: Need to Write Your Vows? A.I. Can Help.

Wk 10 - Mar 8: The Chatbots Are Here, and the Internet Industry Is in a Tizzy

Wk 11 - Mar 15: GPT-4 Is Exciting and Scary

Wk 12 - Mar 21: Google Releases Bard, Its Competitor in the Race to Create A.I. Chatbots

Wk 13 - Mar 27: How to Become an Expert on A.I.

Wk 14 - Apr 5: Can A.I. and Democracy Fix Each Other?

Wk 15 - Apr 12: What if A.I. Sentience Is a Question of Degree?

Wk 16 - Apr 19: An A.I. Hit of Fake ‘Drake’ and ‘The Weeknd’ Rattles the Music World

Wk 17 - Apr 27: Elon Musk Ramps Up A.I. Efforts, Even as He Warns of Dangers

Wk 18 - May 1: When A.I. Chatbots Hallucinate

Wk 19 - May 10: Google Builds on Tech’s Latest Craze With Its Own A.I. Products

Wk 20 - May 16: Microsoft Says New A.I. Shows Signs of Human Reasoning

Wk 21 - May 25: Microsoft Calls for A.I. Rules to Minimize the Technology’s Risks

Wk 22 - May 30: A.I. Poses ‘Risk of Extinction,’ Industry Leaders Warn

Wk 23 - Jun 8: Hey, Alexa, What Should Students Learn About A.I.?

Wk 24 - Jun 14: Generative A.I. Can Add $4.4 Trillion in Value to Global Economy, Study Says

predicted YES

Wk 25 - Jun 22: The Case for an A.I. Pause

Wk 26 - Jun 30: The True Threat of Artificial Intelligence

Wk 27 - Jul 7: How to Use A.I. for Family Time

Wk 28 - Jul 11: Inside the White-Hot Center of A.I. Doomerism

Wk 29 - Jul 18: A Blessing and a Boogeyman: Advertisers Warily Embrace A.I.

Wk 30 - Jul 27: Researchers Poke Holes in Safety Controls of ChatGPT and Other Chatbots

Wk 31 - Aug 3: What Can You Do When A.I. Lies About You?

Wk 32 - Aug 7: A Zoom Call, Fake Names and an A.I. Presentation Gone Awry

Wk 33 - Aug 16: When Hackers Descended to Test A.I., They Found Flaws Aplenty

Wk 34 - Aug 24: How teachers and students feel about A.I.

Wk 35 - Sep 1: Applying to College? Here’s How A.I. Tools Might Hurt, or Help.

Wk 36 - Sep 7: 2 Senators Propose Bipartisan Framework for A.I. Laws

Wk 37 - Sep 10: To Test the A.I. Learning Hype, I Visited Classrooms

Wk 38 - Sep 20: Will Hurd Releases A.I. Plan, a First in the Republican Presidential Field

Wk 39 - Sep 25: The Secret Ingredient of ChatGPT Is Human Advice

Wk 40 - Oct 3: Are Artificial Intelligence and Democracy Compatible?

Wk 41 - Oct 12: ‘A.I. Obama’ and Fake Newscasters: How A.I. Audio Is Swarming TikTok

Wk 42 - Oct 17: What if We Could All Control A.I.?

Wk 43 - Oct 27: Did A.I. Write Product Reviews? Gannett Says No.

Wk 44 - Oct 30: Biden to Issue First Regulations on Artificial Intelligence Systems

Wk 45 - Nov 7: In Regulating A.I., We May Be Doing Too Much. And Too Little.

Wk 46 - Nov 15: Is Argentina the First A.I. Election?

Now, this is, of course, a lot of articles, but if anyone would like to make the case for any of these not counting, i'm absolutely open to hearing it!

predicted YES

Wk 49: Inside the A.I. Arms Race That Changed Silicon Valley Forever https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/05/technology/ai-chatgpt-google-meta.html?smid=nytcore-android-share

predicted YES
predicted YES

@Marnix You’ve been replaced 🤪

predicted YES

@oh just wait until AI replaces us here too 😔

@Marnix wk 51: One Year In and ChatGPT Already Has Us Doing Its Bidding https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/19/opinion/artificial-intelligence-chatgpt.html?smid=nytcore-android-share

One more week to go!

@Marnix Wk 52: A.I. Is the Future of Photography. Does That Mean Photography Is Dead? https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/26/opinion/ai-future-photography.html?smid=nytcore-android-share (or arguably The 2023 Good Tech Awards https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/25/technology/the-2023-good-tech-awards.html?smid=nytcore-android-share)

And that's 52. Unless we want one for the 31st too, but that feels so skewy that it shouldn't count. 52 articles (one per week) feels like it should be plenty.

what's the current rate of ai articles in nyt in 2023? how many have there been each week?