Conditional on Trump carrying out mass detention of migrants, will Elon Musk publicly break with Trump?
10
100Ṁ413
2029
77%
chance

Mass detention being defined as at least 100k more people detained by US Government for specifically immigration reasons than numbers detained on 1 January 2025.

  • Update 2025-07-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the market to resolve to YES, both of the following conditions must be met:

    • The mass detention policy (as defined in the description) is implemented.

    • Elon Musk publicly breaks with Trump.

The public break does not need to be explicitly because of the detention policy.

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