
Conditional on Trump carrying out mass detention of migrants, will Elon Musk publicly break with Trump?
10
100Ṁ4132029
77%
chance
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Mass detention being defined as at least 100k more people detained by US Government for specifically immigration reasons than numbers detained on 1 January 2025.
Update 2025-07-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the market to resolve to YES, both of the following conditions must be met:
The mass detention policy (as defined in the description) is implemented.
Elon Musk publicly breaks with Trump.
The public break does not need to be explicitly because of the detention policy.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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