Resolution criteria

• This market will resolve to the number of active, operational satellites in the Rassvet constellation (developed and operated by Bureau 1440) in orbit as of December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM UTC.

• An "active satellite" is defined as any launched Rassvet satellite (including experimental and serial-production versions) that remains in orbit and has not decayed or reentered the atmosphere, and has not been officially confirmed as permanently failed or decommissioned by Bureau 1440 or orbital tracking databases.

• Sources for resolution:

  1. Jonathan's Space Report or Jonathan McDowell's Satellite Catalog.

  2. CelesTrak or Space-Track.org active catalog entries for Bureau 1440/Rassvet payloads.

  3. If tracking databases are lagging or conflict, consensus among credible spaceflight reporting outlets (such as SpaceNews or Gunter's Space Page) will determine the outcome.

• If a launch occurs near the end of December 2027, only satellites successfully deployed in orbit before the December 31, 2027, deadline will count toward the final number.

Background

• Bureau 1440 (initially MegaFon 1440) is a Russian private aerospace company constructing Rassvet, a low-Earth orbit (LEO) communications constellation intended to provide sovereign broadband internet.

• Constellation Progress (as of August 2026):

  • June 2023: 3 experimental Rassvet-1 satellites launched.

  • May 2024: 3 experimental Rassvet-2 satellites launched.

  • March 2026: First operational batch of 16 serial satellites launched (1 subsequently failed/reentered, leaving 15).

  • July 2026: Second operational batch of 16 satellites launched.

  • Total active in orbit as of late August 2026: 37 satellites (6 experimental, 31 operational).

• Constellation Targets: Russia's national "Data Economy" program outlines plans to scale the constellation to between 250 and 292 satellites by the end of 2027 to officially launch commercial service. However, international sanctions on microelectronics and industrial bottlenecks—such as an August 2026 Ukrainian strike on the Samara Progress Rocket Space Centre which produces Soyuz rockets—threaten to delay future deployments.