How much will OpenAI be valued in its next funding round?
12
455Ṁ1112
resolved Feb 17
100%93%
$80B to $160B
1.0%
Less than $10B
0.5%
$10B to $20B
0.8%
$20B to $40B
3%
$40B to $80B
1.7%
More than $160B
0.5%
No new capital raised until the end of 2025

OpenAI has raised capital from investors several times in its history, and the company's valuation has generally increased with each successive funding round. 33rd Square lists the following valuations for the company:

  • In 2019, after securing $1 billion from Microsoft, OpenAI was valued at around $1 billion.

  • By 2021, its valuation grew to $14 billion during a funding round.

  • In 2022, OpenAI was valued at $20 billion as per an internal valuation.

  • Currently in 2023, estimates peg OpenAI‘s valuation between $29 billion to $32 billion.

The Financial Times reported in October 2023 that OpenAI was planning another stock sale, this time at a valuation of $86 billion. However, with the recent leadership transition at the company, there has been speculation that this stock sale is now in jeopardy.

Conditional on a new funding round for OpenAI taking place until the end of 2025, this question will resolve to whichever bucket the implied valuation in the funding round falls into. The bucket "X to Y" with X < Y is defined to include X but not include Y, so e.g. if a new funding round valued OpenAI at $40B, this question would resolve to "$40B to $80B". Similarly, if the valuation was $10B, this question would resolve to "$10B to $20B".

If OpenAI doesn't raise any new capital until the end of 2025, this question will resolve to "No new capital raised until the end of 2025".

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I've resolved the question to $86B ($80B to $160B) on the basis of this Bloomberg article.

Note from the question creator: If the probability mass of one or two of the options ends up dominating, I will consider making a new market with finer buckets.

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