@RonnyFernandez created a market that uses amplification to try to zoom in on the odds Oliver Habryka would become CEO of Twitter within a year. How will that market resolve?

There are two wrinkles to that market.

1.) it is conditional on Oliver putting in a solid 40 hour worth of effort into attempting to get selected within the next month.

2.) it is using amplification to attempt to get higher resolution on the YES odds.

There is a lot of work being done by these conditionals, which it then expects to offset by resolving the market to N/A if Oliver does not put in the effort, or if Oliver is not selected and a fair die roll fails to come up with a 1 in 10 chance).

https://manifold.markets/RonnyFernandez/amplified-10x-conditional-on-oliver

In the comments on that market I suggested I'd like to be able to bet on whether or not the conditional would be filled, because that would be a more effective way to subsidize YES/NO betting.

If the source market resolves early, this market will also resolve early.

If the source market resolves YES, this market will resolve YES.
If the source market resolves NO, this market will resolve NO.
If the source market resolves N/A, this market will attempt to assess why. (Probably by asking Oliver and Ronny) and will resolve to whichever of the explicit N/A results specified are appropriate. However, in the event the source market resolves N/A for a reason not listed, this market will also resolve N/A.

Wherever the criteria are not clear, all conditions defer to the original market. e.g. the title of the other market says "next CEO", but the body makes no reference to the requirement that he become the next CEO.

The intent of this market is to see if we can use these multiple-choice-answer markets to surface the conditionals at the same time we try to resolve an underlying conditioned question, allowing folks to trade between the full suite of outcomes. (Here it is muddled a bit by the fact that we also have amplification going on.)

My concerns are that I'll get worse resolution due to the lack of limit orders on multiple-choice questions, generally clunkier trading mechanisms (sell orders have to sell your entire position), and the fact that folks would have to manually track the N/A due to die roll loss vs. NO outcome odds, and that this will require lots of fiddly adjustment trades that the multiple-choice format is poorly suited to handle), and finally that by trying to 'expose' the amplification here, I may have destroyed the attempt at increased resolution in the other market, so I may want to confine myself to just using this structure to tease apart strengths for conditionals in the future.

Please let me know in the comments if you have questions, concerns or ideas for how to improve this style of question.

Close date updated to 2023-02-05 2:49 am