THIS IS A CONDITIONAL AND AMPLIFIED MARKET. PLEASE READ THE DESCRIPTION CAREFULLY. 

This market will resolve to yes if Oliver Habryka spends 40 hours or more putting in a genuine effort to become the CEO of twitter within the next month, and he is announced as the CEO of twitter within a year (Dec 23 2023).

If Oliver Habryka spends 40 hours or more putting in a genuine effort to become the CEO of twitter within the next month, and he is not announced as the CEO of twitter within a year (Dec 23 2023) I will use a random number generator to get a number between 0 and 1 and settle the market to no if that value is less than 1/10, otherwise the market will setlle to N/A (more explanation below). 

This market will resolve to N/A, if Oliver Habryka does not spend 40 hours or more putting in a genuine effort to become the CEO of twitter within the next month. I (Ronny Fernandez) will determine whether Oliver Habryka spent 40 hours or more putting in a genuine effort in part by asking him. (A month here just means four weeks from today (Dec 23 2022)). 

Because 9/10 times that Oliver does not become CEO of twitter conditional on his making a serious effort (as defined above) this market will resolve to N/A, your fair price on this market should be ~10X the probabiltiy you assign to Oliver becoming CEO of Twitter conditional on his trying hard. 

If your actual conditional distribution is 0.1% YES, 99.9% NO, you should expect this market to resolve with probabilities 0.1% YES, 9.999% NO, 89.901% N/A, conditional on Oliver trying hard as defined above, which means that your fair price for a YES share should be ~1%.

Some other values, for calibration (using the formula YES' = YES/(YES + (1-YES)/10), where YES' is the price for this question, and YES is your actual probability):

I (Ronny Fernandez) will not be trading in this market.