Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official U.S. unemployment rate for April 2026, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is strictly greater than 4.5%. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

The official unemployment rate refers to the headline seasonally adjusted figure (U-3) published in "The Employment Situation" news release. Resolution will be based on the final, non-revised data for April 2026, typically available in the May 2026 "Employment Situation" report. The official data can be verified on the BLS website: https://www.bls.gov/cps/.

Background

The unemployment rate is defined by the BLS as the number of unemployed individuals as a percentage of the civilian labor force. To be classified as unemployed, an individual must be without a job, available for work, and have actively sought employment in the prior four weeks. The BLS releases these statistics monthly, typically on the first Friday of the month following the reference period. As of early April 2026, the most recent data indicated an unemployment rate of 4.3% for March 2026.

This description was generated by AI.