https://x.com/tracewoodgrains/status/1849111044674802142

Can we get a market on if Hamas was responsible for these killings? There aren't too many reports of IDF soldiers actually shooting kids in the head, but lots of bodies. The snipers the IDF uses are very powerful and blow peoples' heads off.

https://www.nytco.com/press/response-to-recent-criticisms-on-new-york-times-opinion-essay/

Something something bounded distrust. If they have photos of the children and are willing to back the piece with a statement like this I think there’s very little chance the claims are meaningfully false and don’t think Tracing should either.

I mostly agree, but the main thing that made me willing to take 35% on this is that it's an "opinion essay", so I think it's less embarrassing for them to fuck it up (though very embarrassing for the author). The response you provided is enough of an update for me not to hold at that price, though.

@Sketchy Seems like most likely YES situation is that the source of the image lied about their origin. Dr. Sidhwa and the NYT editorial board may have honestly reported what was told to them by Dr. Syed.

There is no way the x-rays show what is claimed (point blank shots to children), absolutely zero, for a 5.56 to not fully penetrate a head you'd be out at close to a kilometer.

They might be real x-rays of children in Gaza if folk are shooting skyward.

My money is on the article being propaganda and the images being fake though, given the author and the doctors involved.

Not going to get involved in the market as I have no idea how related the resolution will be reality.

@PaulBenjaminPhotographer

"what is claimed (point blank shots to children)" this is not claimed. the article is short

"My money is on the article being propaganda and the images being fake" my money is on the xrays being real, your money isn't on anything.

@purple_cat What evidence will persuade you otherwise?

This feels like something you 'believe' which makes any discussion pointless...

@PaulBenjaminPhotographer put some mana in the market already if you're so sure

@NivlacM The market isn't 'are these fake', it's 'will some unknown person think they are fake'.

I have zero idea what price to give that....

@PaulBenjaminPhotographer what resolution mechanism do you prefer and how much money are you willing to bet?

@purple_cat "your money isn't on anything" goes so hard

No way these kids were shot at point-blank range, but I’m sure there have been a lot of stray bullets flying around Gaza. Not insane that there could be several low-velocity impacts to children.

if anyone is interested in betting real money ($1k-5k) with the given terms please dm me on twitter https://x.com/raspy_aspie . (I believe that the xrays are real)

No (M10 @ 73%): NYTimes publishing images which are demonstrably fake would incur significant reputational damage; given the effort the Times puts in to verifying such things (described by other Op-Ed writers) and the caution which the Times employs in describing the background of the pictures (eg, not outright saying that Israel is responsible but merely leading readers to that conclusion), I find it unlikely that the Times would not have asked for rigorous fact-checking of the photos and published the most “it’s all true” version of the story that they could.

@JacksonPetty Updating with another “NO” M10 @ 70%: The terms of the market resolve to NO if Trace believes the patients in the photos suffered injuries from low-velocity impacts (eg from bullets falling out of the sky), which would explain the disparity between the reported injuries and the “normal” effect of a round entering a skull. ToI reports a similar case in 2020 here (‏https://www.timesofisrael.com/shocked-doctors-find-bullet-lodged-in-brain-of-sleepy-9-year-old-remove-it/) with the likely explanation being “bullets fired into the air during Eid al-Adha. This is a more parsimonious explanation than faked images.

see my reasoning here: https://x.com/raspy_aspie/status/1845345622221602918