Times article: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/09/opinion/gaza-doctor-interviews.html archived: https://archive.is/tv9km

The article includes prominently a set of three images it claims are x-rays of children who were shot in the head or neck. The author is careful not to explicitly say the children were shot by Israeli forces, only that they were patients one of the article's interviewees saw, but the clear implication is that Israel is responsible.

Various people have claimed the x-rays are inconsistent with gunshot wounds to the head from the kinds of weapon and ammunition the IDF uses. For example:

https://x.com/angertab/status/1845170296468172857

Terms of the bet this market mirrors (I'm inverting it): https://x.com/raspy_aspie/status/1845464176715534571

"in 6 weeks (11/24/2024) trace (@tracewoodgrains) believes it is more likely than not that the 3 images in the NYT article (attached) are real xray images of injured children taken in Gaza after Oct 7 2023, according to his interpretation of those words"

Mr Woodgrains' assent: https://x.com/tracewoodgrains/status/1845467773209637293

Note the terms don't require Trace to believe that Israel is responsible for this to resolve no.

Sister market based on the Times' retraction: https://manifold.markets/EchoNolan/will-the-new-york-times-substantial

Opinion | 65 Doctors, Nurses and Paramedics: What We Saw in Gaza

“Nearly every day I was there, I saw a new young child who had been shot in the head or the chest, virtually all of whom went on to die.”