Will Nate Silver join or found an organization associated with EA, rationalists, or prediction markets?
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resolved Jul 16
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YES

At the time of this market's creation, Nate Silver is figuring out what he wants to do after his current contract with Disney expires: https://natesilver.substack.com/p/some-personal-news

I've always thought of Nate as "rationalist-adjacent", though I'm not sure he'd agree. Will his next project be associated with rationalists, EAs, or prediction markets? Examples would include:

  • Founding a "new FiveThirtyEight" as a nonprofit funded by prominent EA figures

  • Getting hired by Manifold or Metaculus or partnering with them in some way

  • Starting a new prediction market

Ultimately resolves on my personal judgement, but I promise not to get creative in interpreting "association". Resolves at the end of 2024.

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What if he became an advisor of s company?

I'll count it if it's a paid position and publicly announced.

He lists "Effective altruism, rationalism and philosophy" as a potential topic in his survey for what people want him to cover next. (He also lists prediction markets!)