At the time of this market's creation, Nate Silver is figuring out what he wants to do after his current contract with Disney expires: https://natesilver.substack.com/p/some-personal-news
I've always thought of Nate as "rationalist-adjacent", though I'm not sure he'd agree. Will his next project be associated with rationalists, EAs, or prediction markets? Examples would include:
Founding a "new FiveThirtyEight" as a nonprofit funded by prominent EA figures
Getting hired by Manifold or Metaculus or partnering with them in some way
Starting a new prediction market
Ultimately resolves on my personal judgement, but I promise not to get creative in interpreting "association". Resolves at the end of 2024.
He lists "Effective altruism, rationalism and philosophy" as a potential topic in his survey for what people want him to cover next. (He also lists prediction markets!)