Will Nate Silver join or found an organization associated with EA, rationalists, or prediction markets?

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resolved Jul 16

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YES

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At the time of this market's creation, Nate Silver is figuring out what he wants to do after his current contract with Disney expires: https://natesilver.substack.com/p/some-personal-news

I've always thought of Nate as "rationalist-adjacent", though I'm not sure he'd agree. Will his next project be associated with rationalists, EAs, or prediction markets? Examples would include:

Founding a "new FiveThirtyEight" as a nonprofit funded by prominent EA figures
Getting hired by Manifold or Metaculus or partnering with them in some way
Starting a new prediction market

Ultimately resolves on my personal judgement, but I promise not to get creative in interpreting "association". Resolves at the end of 2024.

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bought Ṁ100 YES

I believe resolves yes: https://www.theblock.co/post/305703/polymarket-taps-election-statistician-nate-silver-as-advisor?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

Yep, thank you!

What if he became an advisor of s company?

I'll count it if it's a paid position and publicly announced.

He lists "Effective altruism, rationalism and philosophy" as a potential topic in his survey for what people want him to cover next. (He also lists prediction markets!)

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