How many ratings will IRONSTRIKE have on the Meta Quest Store after 6 months? (Ṁ2500 subsidy!)

2.6kṀ17k

resolved May 16

100%97%

51-200

0.5%

0-50

1.0%

201-500

1.0%

501-1000

0.3%

1000-2000

0.3%

2000+

IRONSTRIKE is a 4-player co-op fantasy action roguelike, and I'm launching it on the Meta Quest Store on 11/16: https://www.meta.com/experiences/6376559029122173/

Will it be a hit or a flop? Help me forecast! We'll use ratings as a rough estimate of the game's popularity, since ratings are public knowledge.

If you want to look at other games to get a basis for comparison, here's some links to the Meta Quest Store:

All Games: https://www.meta.com/experiences/section/391914765228253/
Melee Action Showcase: https://www.meta.com/experiences/section/1237807416895540/
Roguelike Showcase: https://www.meta.com/experiences/section/1020923612443633/

IRONSTRIKE on Oculus Quest 2

IRONSTRIKE is a 4-player co-op roguelike featuring skillful physics-based swordplay, intricate gestural spellcasting, and dexterous archery. Wield a sword, bow & arrow, or magic as you fight to rescue the gods of a vibrant fantasy world. Assemble a party of up to 4 heroes in co-op multiplayer, or venture forth alone. Customize your build to become an unstoppable armored juggernaut, a nimble duelist, a mage, an assassin, or any kind of hero you can imagine.

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#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ1,013
2		Ṁ1,003
3		Ṁ35
4		Ṁ31
5		Ṁ18

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@EMcNeill This game looks very cool! Congrats! (Although I don't have a Quest myself).

Looks like it's may 16th and there are 169 reviews, so this can resolve to the 51-200 bucket. Although if you mean by the end of today, & want to wait, of course fine as well. Good market idea!

@Ziddletwix Of course! Thanks for participating. :)

One month left

The game launched a few hours ago and already has 31 reviews. If this rate keeps up, it’ll end up with over 45,000 reviews by 6 months!

@EMcNeill 😆

is ironstrike a (spiritual) sequel to ironlights? looks like ironlights did 2k+ lifetime. not sure what the quest market looked like then vs. now, nor how much of it might have been frontloaded by the KS campaign

@Stralor Yeah, Ironstrike is a follow-up to Ironlights, though I avoid using the word “sequel” since it ended up in a very different genre. 🙂

Ironlights’s 2k ratings came in surprisingly gradually and steadily over the course of its first two years, then significantly slower since the 2022 holiday bump. I don’t know what dynamics caused that. Maybe it reflects the rate of new users getting Quests, which slowed down in 2023 but miiiiight have picked up again with the Quest 3 launch? Or maybe the whole Quest market was really hot and then cooled off, i.e. everyone has moved on from VR, never to return? Maybe the ecosystem hit a critical mass of cool-looking high-profile games, so new titles sell well but people have stopped looking through older titles? Maybe people who want to swing swords in VR just have a lot more options to choose from? Maybe someone tweaked the store discovery algorithm?

A few specific melee roguelike games for comparison:

205 Ratings - ALTAIR BREAKER (launched Aug 18, 2022) - https://www.meta.com/experiences/4599090550122539/
67 Ratings - EVERSLAUGHT Invasion (launched May 25, 2023) https://www.meta.com/experiences/5219488324783789/
1053 Ratings - Battle Talent (launched Jun 1, 2023) - https://www.meta.com/experiences/8752849024786000

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