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Will emergency US financial aid for Israel be announced by the end of next week?
71
Ṁ1.1kṀ9.3k
resolved Oct 16
Resolved
NO

This market resolves to YES if any US government source/agency officially announces extra financial aid to Israel in the wake of recent events, by next Sunday.

The market resolves to NO if no previously unplanned financial aid packages are announced for Israel. Military aid will not count as financial aid.

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predictedYES

@Dynd How are we defining “announced”? Announce: make a formal public statement about a fact, occurrence, or intention. would imply that Schumer’s office has made a formal statement on the existence of an aid package going through

predictedNO

@HeteroskedasticTrader a delegation announcing a discussion about possible aid is not a formal announcement. Schumer has said: “I’m very hopeful we can pass that by unanimous consent,” Mr. Schumer, Democrat of New York, said of the resolution. When it comes to putting an actual aid package for Israel on the Senate floor, Mr. Schumer said he wanted to consult first with Israeli officials, but “I think the sooner, the better.” This is just a handful of senators talking about aid. It is not in any way an announcement that financial aid will come. Congress is still awaiting a supplemental funding request from the White House.

predictedNO

The US government cannot approve aid to Israel (or Ukraine) until a new Speaker of the House of Representatives is approved. It’s very unlikely that a Speaker will be elected AND a funding package is approved by Sunday Oct 15 … IMHO.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/10/world/israel-hamas-war-gaza/413a9048-6f37-5d2d-827f-da7713736c03?smid=url-share

Karoun Demirjian
Senator Chuck Schumer, the majority leader, is cutting short a trip to China, South Korea and Japan in light of the expanding war between Israel and Hamas, his office announced Tuesday.

In a phone conversation with Israel’s president, Isaac Herzog, from Beijing, Schumer pledged that the Senate would do “whatever it takes” to ensure Israel has the supplies it needs. He is expected to return to the United States on Thursday, and receive a classified briefing on developments in the Middle East once he is back.

Karoun Demirjian

The leaders of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Michael McCaul, Republican of Texas, and Gregory Meeks, Democrat of New York, filed a bipartisan resolution Tuesday to express solidarity with Israel and pledge lawmakers’ readiness to provide Israel with whatever emergency assistance it needs for its war against Hamas and siege of the Gaza Strip. An additional 390 House members have endorsed the resolution.

predictedNO
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