Resolves YES if in my opinion there has been a major public-facing breakthrough in AI equivilent to the launch of ChatGPT or Midjourney/StableDiffusion. I wont participate or trade in this market unless its to make a quick buck off some volatility (I wont hold a position at market close at the very least)
This market is more likely to resolve YES if:
*There is a development in AI that is being talked about by people I know in real life who aren't that interested in AI such as my parents or my brother
* There is a development in AI that I personally am very excited about because it seems like a big leap forward
This market is more likely to resolve NO if:
*The situation is largely the same as today regarding consumer facing AIs. ie Midjourney still uses discord and has only slightly improved if at all. ChatGPT is largely the same. Googles AIs aren't talked about by normal people. And any new products are niche and uknown to the public
Multimodal AI that reasons through the structure of proteins:
@SimoneRomeo see the discussion in the other/earlier resolving market https://manifold.markets/DylanSlagh/will-there-be-another-major-publicf?r=RHlsYW5TbGFnaA
These are my guesses: autonomous humanoid robots mass production (by Tesla and more), LLM that writes DNA (by ginkgo and Google, generative AI videos by mid journey, independent agents by Open AI and google