Resolves YES if in my opinion there has been a major public-facing breakthrough in AI equivilent to the launch of ChatGPT or Midjourney/StableDiffusion. I wont participate or trade in this market unless its to make a quick buck off some volatility (I wont hold a position at market close at the very least)
This market is more likely to resolve YES if:
*There is a development in AI that is being talked about by people I know in real life who aren't that interested in AI such as my parents or my brother
* There is a development in AI that I personally am very excited about because it seems like a big leap forward
This market is more likely to resolve NO if:
*The situation is largely the same as today regarding consumer facing AIs. ie Midjourney still uses discord and has only slightly improved if at all. ChatGPT is largely the same. Googles AIs aren't talked about by normal people. And any new products are niche and uknown to the public
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So I’m gonna resolve this early so more people don’t get caught up in speculating how I’m gonna resolve this. Obviously there has been progress in AI this year, including SORA, advanced voice, and o3 and o1. But given my criteria and the market being about them being “public facing” I think this is definitely a NO.
I just spent time with a lot of family over the holliday and I didn’t get the impression that the general public (and my family) is aware of the progress that has been made in AI. They definitely haven’t heard of any of the above technologies I’ve mentioned while still having heard of ChatGPT and AI images to the same extent they did last year.
Argue with me all you want but thats my decision
@DylanSlagh this is frankly the most absurd resolution I've seen. We have got models that replicate human reasoning, passing the Turin test, passing ARC challenge, realistic video generation, safer than humans self driving, AI just won two Nobel prizes. And you are not excited. What did you expect?
@SimoneRomeo and also songs, realistic speech, and interactive smart humanoid robots that can be purchased online
@SimoneRomeo And none of those technology has broken through into the public consciousness in the same way that chatgpt and AI images in general has, which is what this market is about.
@DylanSlagh the description didn't simply mentioned public consciousness, but also:
" There is a development in AI that I personally am very excited about because it seems like a big leap forward" and "The situation is largely the same as today regarding consumer facing AIs. ie Midjourney still uses discord and has only slightly improved if at all. ChatGPT is largely the same."
2024 has brought substantial innovation both to art creation (like mid journey did" and to knowledge work. They haven't spread into public consciousness but:
Mid journey never did, so it should not have been given as an example if this was the criteria
ChatGPT has been the most successful APP in history, if that alone was the criteria that could have resolved this market, the resolution criteria should have been something like "will there be an AI app that spreads faster than ChatGPT in 2024"
And finally, ChatGPT didn't really come into public consciousness in the same year when it was launched (2023) but only later. In fact, all the people I know (non experts) started to use it this year. So you could argue that this has been the real breakthrough into public consciousness.
@SimoneRomeo midjourney doesn't use discord, ChatGPT has a substantially different architecture than one year ago, and there have been plenty of breakthroughs during the year.
@Bayesian It seems it would not because his definition of breakthrough seems to require public interest. Not a fan of that criteria, and in spirit I think o1 and o3 should definitely make it resolve yes
@JaundicedBaboon grok image generation has pretty big public impact with more non-technical people creating high quality AI images
@ChinmayTheMathGuy and o3 probably meets the 2nd criteria: " There is a development in AI that I personally am very excited about because it seems like a big leap forward"
but it's not public facing yet
Multimodal AI that reasons through the structure of proteins:
@SimoneRomeo see the discussion in the other/earlier resolving market https://manifold.markets/DylanSlagh/will-there-be-another-major-publicf?r=RHlsYW5TbGFnaA