What will be the first year that I will be able to generate a video of a kitten drinking out of a saucer of milk?
37
456
1.4K
2031
0.4%
2023
81%
2024
15%
2025
1.8%
2026
0.9%
2027
0.7%
2028
0.2%
2029
0.2%
2030
0.3%
Later/Never

Resolves to whatever year it is that I am able to use a prompt based software of some kind to generate a photorealistic (indistinguishable from reality by a uninformed viewer, similar in quality to current midjourney for most subjects) video of a kitten drinking out of a saucer of milk. It must cost less than $25 to generate and this must be the prompt: kitten drinking out of a saucer of milk, face covered in milk, messy kitty, cute

For reference this is what midjourney currently does with the above prompt:

And for your enjoyment here is another example of real kitten:

Get Ṁ200 play money
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@DylanSlagh is this on the first attempt? As many attempts as it takes? Somewhere in between?

@Jacy Probably as many attempts as I want as long as the total cost stays below $25. Maybe the new model will be available with chatgpt plus. we'll see I guess. I'll probably use my mom and if she doesn't suspect it's AI generated then this market will resolve

bought Ṁ50 of 2023 NO

Why is 2023 not resolved NO? This clearly either does not exist or is not available to the market creator.

@DavidBolin In this particular type of market options can’t be resolved early

bought Ṁ25 of 2024 NO

How long does the video need to be? Like is 1 second of believable footage enough or more like 10?

@SophusCorry Good question. I think minimum 5 seconds is good

bought Ṁ5 of 2023 YES

25 bucks for the video is fair but what if you need access to a service which costs 200 bucks but let's you make many such videos. Will you count an average per video cost?

bought Ṁ1 of 2026 YES

@firstuserhere I was thinking that the total cost would have to be less than $25. I was trying to make some criteria which would have a similar price level to midjourney

@DylanSlagh ahh that does change things. Ik of a few companies pushing for the big subscription with lots of videos generation capabilities that might do this early next year. The per video cost will be much cheaper than 15 bucks

@firstuserhere fwiw I think such a service should qualify under

must cost less than $25

@firstuserhere maybe I could pay someone who does have a subscription and it could still resolve