Who is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
➕
Plus
1k
Ṁ1.8m
2025
21%
Elon Musk
20%
Other
13%
Barack Obama
6%
Gwern Branwen
6%
Jeff Bezos
5%
No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific
5%
roon
3%
Mr. Beast
3%
Bill Gates
2%
Javier Milei
2%
Donald Trump
2%
Sam Altman
1.5%
Scott Alexander

https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1826340260735058400

This market is specifically on whom the above tweet is referring to, regardless of whether the interview occurs.

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Does this market resolve at the end of the current year? He said next few months in august

losing all my mana betting on gwern and roon

@beaver1 lol I don't even know who Roon is; a search turns up a dead Prussian named Albrecht Theodor Emil Graf von Roon

@AlQuinn he is a protagonist on tpot https://x.com/tszzl

My thesis is that isn’t Elon, Obama, or Trump because it doesn’t make as much sense for them if the episode was to air after the election. Therefore I’m buying shares of Altman, Gates, Bezos, and Roon (if Dwarkesh was just memeing)

bought Ṁ100 Elon Musk NO

Put some no on elon, based on him being too busy being shadow president to do a podcast.

Is Obama a "big guest" in the current zeitgeist anymore? It's not 2012!

Much as they retain Secret Service protection, former presidents maintain a lifetime "big deal" status

@dlin007 Obama’s credibility in tatters at this point

@MichaelDickens I would have said that former UK PMs also retain their "big deal" status, though the timing suggests that the person Dwarkesh was talking is an even bigger deal.

bought Ṁ50 Gwern Branwen YES

@DylanBowman Is this market going to get resolved as N/A on December 1st if Dwarkesh doesn't say who his tweet was referring to by that date?

@WilliamKiely Thanks for pointing that out--I've extended the resolution date to mid-2025. Perhaps at some point in early 2025, if the market hasn't resolved, I'll reach out to Dwarkesh.

@DylanBowman If Dwarkesh says the guest fell through and it never happens will you resolve it to "no one"?

@squirrelfish So the creator's earlier comments below were pretty clear that unless a specific guest can be found that this refers to, it resolves N/A. so I am confident that would be covered under "the guest fell through". (It also means the option "No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific" should probably be edited to be INVALID because AFAIK, in that case, he would also plan to resolve it N/A).

That being said, the comments for this market are now very hard to scroll through, so if possible it would be nice if this clarification could be added to the market description itself.

It’s great to see that 1.7 million Mana has been bet on this very important question

@biased 😂

bought Ṁ3,000 Gwern Branwen NO

Free 40000 Mana, just Buy YES on Gwern.

Free 5000 Mana, just Buy NO on Gwern.

@WilliamKiely then why are you buying yes lol?

@jack Let me add a disclaimer that "free" is a joke. It's never free and there's always a risk. That said, my Yes bet is fairly low-information.

opened a Ṁ350 Barack Obama YES at 12% order

obama is the only one bigger than gwern

signal boosting: gwern himself says it is not him

@Caseythezahima that could have been a joke about Gwern’s anonymity; it seems a very likely interpretation to me.

@MarkBowen i don't follow, care to elaborate? the tweet thread seems to be straightforwardly following this chain: dwarkesh says biggest guest upcoming -> could it be gwern -> gwern says no, the guest is monstrously more famous than me. gwern here is speaking as gwern, not whoever he actually is; there's no room for interpreting a 'split' whereby he implies gwern is more famous than his private identity (even if obviously true).

@Caseythezahima Presumptively GB would have at that point agreed to the terms of his interview where his answers are spoken by a different person. If GB is anonymous, then whoever that was is by definition more famous than GB is.

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