Elections passed, I think Obama has less incentive for media appearances.

@HamzaThange And I’d say Dwarkesh has less incentive to give Musk even more of a platform. Everyone had enough of his antics already.

For those also interested in guests independently of their weight I have this market:

suppose biggest guest yet was actually backward looking?

what would you infer from his currently reading?

@TommyEagle not much?

@NicoDelon probably just shorter tech in favor of global politics but yeah not a strong signal

@TommyEagle It is some signal that he’s still very interested in history but 1. that isn’t new and 2. this may well be about guests that are not the biggest. Though I think Caro very likely.

Do you guys have any evidence for Obama? Because Bezos did publicly mention Dwarkesh on Twitter before his tweet about his "biggest guest yet".

Since we don't support multi-choice sweepstakes yet, I made this market enabled to win cash prizes on: https://manifold.markets/SG/will-elon-musk-appear-on-dwarkesh-p?play=false

Some indirect evidence that Hinton was underrated for a while.

@DylanBowman probably want to make this one invalid as well given that you said earlier that in this case it'd N/A?

@Ziddletwix Participants shouldn't have to read the whole comment section to find out if the market maker added resolution criteria. If "No one" resolves N/A that should be added to the question description.

@WilliamKiely Sure, they should add that to the description. But when anyone can add answers, it is impossible to avoid people adding answers that don't fit the question. I don't think it's surprising that when the question asks "Who", an answer of "no one" isn't a valid addition. But there's no way to litigate that without the creator chiming in. That's how open-addition markets have to work—people will add stuff that hasn't been vetted by the creator yet, and it might turn out to be invalid.

https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1841157109419032885

"Huawei outcomes Western firms regularly with 2 hands tied behind their back"

@dylan522p

"They go crazy because they think in 5 years they're going to fight a war with the United States"

@asianometry

Full episode out Wednesday

None of the answers were "Dwarkesh wasn't referring to a specific guest." If Dwarkesh wasn't referring to a specific guest, would it resolve to "Other" then? Or would it resolve ambiguous?

@WilliamKiely I think it should resolve to OTHER but the market creator has said it will be N/A’ed

@benshindel I'd agree that "Other" seems appropriate (and now "No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific" now that someone added that as an option), especially since the resolution criteria doesn't say anything about it resolving ambiguously in that instance. But I'm going to stay out of this market since it seems unclear.

@Lop this answer will not be entertained

@DylanBowman if you want to exclude this answer (& avoid people betting on it further), you should be able to edit the text? (e.g. to "INVALID")

@Ziddletwix I did it for him

Ben is not big compared to Zuck but he is a regular user of fantasy football website manifold

@beaver1 HA

@beaver1 I'm biggest by at least one metric ;)

plz delete this it's a duplicate of the Satoshi option

@ZaneMiller lmao

I will continue to bet Ṁ50 every day on Gwern until morale improves.