Will we see major supply shortages across multiple markets in 2023?
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resolved Dec 13
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YES

Will there be major news organizations running stories on supply shortages of at least five different consumer goods (e.g., toilet paper, cars, infant formula, etc.) that are in short supply across the USA for longer than a week? "Fad" shortages, e.g., not enough Tickle-Me Elmos for xmas, do not qualify. Labor shortages do not qualify. Brand shortages (e.g., KFC running out of chicken) do not qualify unless there are no competitors selling a comparable product.

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Apart from ADHD medicines, there have been intermittent generic drug shortages all year. There is currently a penicillin shortage, which is extremely important for treating syphilis with no good alternative. There have also been liquid antibiotic shortages, which of course is what you use to treat children who cannot swallow pills. Amoxicillin is the one I have linked, but at the same time there were several simultaneous shortages of liquid antibiotics making it very difficult to prescribe antibiotics to kids earlier this year. There have also been generic chemotherapy shortages, which again our medicines that are not easily substituted for an alternative. I am sure I could find more generic medication shortages beyond these, and they were all at least a significant as ADHD drug shortages. With those drugs alone, I think this resolves yes. 

Apart from medications, I found a few items. The milk carton shortage is an interesting one affecting multiple markets from more than a week. The global rice shortage was similar to the egg shortage and that it resulted in a massive spike in price.  It affected other parts of the world more than the US, but even the US price of rice I believe is up 90% from last year.  I think the red jalapeno shortage is my weakest one as it is more associated with a single product, Sriracha. It depends on whether you consider Sriracha a unique flavor or just a replaceable name brand hot sauce. 


Penicillin shortage


https://www.npr.org/2023/06/16/1182626821/pfizer-penicillin-shortage

Amoxicillin shortage

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/08/health/strep-amoxicillin-shortage-wellness/index.html

Chemo shortages

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2023/06/15/1181876655/cancer-drugs-cisplatin-carboplatin-shortage

Rice shortage

https://apnews.com/article/rice-prices-shortage-india-ban-a7364dbdb6fd04934090bd2943e24bbd

Milk carton shortage

https://apnews.com/article/milk-carton-shortage-dairy-school-lunch-edcf79552eba91d1f4e06b0c05fd8c02

Red jalapeno shortage/ Sriracha shortage 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/food/2023/11/10/huy-fong-foods-sriracha-shortage-easing/71537101007/



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@WrongoPhD I think at this point I would say that antibiotics/Amoxicillin count; chemo drugs count; rice does not count, yet (remember, this is looking at US markets; I'm not finding any evidence of a 90% increase?), milk cartons do not count, yet (only appear to be in short supply in some states); and I am very much inclined to treat the periodic Sriracha shortage as a brand issue, not a hot sauce in general issue. I'm always happy to hear specific arguments for/against any of these.

@Duncn However, I should add that while US rice looks dead-on what it was a year ago, it is way up in cost from it's low low plummet in June of this year. If you were looking at the last six months of just whole-sale prices, it does approach a 90% increase -- although you have to pick your dates just right.

bought Ṁ150 of YES

@Duncn I think you're right about rice after all. My source must have been comparing price increases from a low, and it's more of a world problem than a US problem. That said, I strongly feel like that milk carton shortage should count.

The title question is "shortages across multiple markets." California, Washington, Utah, Colorado ,Pennsylvania, New York are all particularly affected. That's multiple markets. Even though it has hit some markets more than others, it is still in national short supply. The NYtimes says,

"A nationwide shortage of the cartons is hitting the dairy industry... '

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/02/us/milk-carton-shortage-schools.html

The economist calls it "A national milk carton shortage. "

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/11/30/a-national-milk-carton-shortage-sours-americas-dairy-industry

And CNN says "The carton shortage has been affecting these processors, and schools in turn, across the country in recent weeks" which is remarkably similar to the verbiage from your own market description: "in short supply across the USA for longer than a week"

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/09/business/school-milk-carton-shortage/index.html

I have other items I could argue have had shortages, but honestly I think that CNN article matching your market description so closely really should settle the matter.

@WrongoPhD The "multiple markets" in the title was refering to types of products ("toilet paper, cars, infant formula, etc."), not "areas where things are sold".

That said, it does look like the carton shortage probably counts. It looks like one of the major manufacturers fell short on supply, impacting multiple states, and other suppliers have not been able to pick up the slack and are no longer taking new orders. There is the wrinkle that we have a previous clarification (in the thread below) this that components of consumer goods do not count if the shortage does not result in a shortage of consumer goods; and the cartoon shortage does limit the distribution of milk, but arguably does not result in a shortage of milk. However, given that a large part of the role of milk in our society is to provide government subsidies to dairy farmers, and this significantly restricts that, I would accept it. (Or to put it another way, the major consumer of tiny milk cartons is the government, and they will not shift to gallon jugs; the market is not satisfied with the available supply chain).

However, I won't count it before giving others a chance to present counterarguments.

TLDR; if you don't think that milk cartons count as a shortage, post your arguments here!

bought Ṁ10 YES at 84%
bought Ṁ5 of YES

@Duncn I think this market can be resolved on @WrongoPhD who clearly has done her/hus homework.

What is your current count?

@RobertCousineau 2/5: Eggs and Amphetamine mixed salts (Adderall and etc.)

I think the Ozempic shortage does not count, as it is a 'fad' shortage -- albeit, a very dangerous one -- and possibly a brand shortage, although there are no generic alternatives on the market.

If anyone feels that I've missed any, please let me know!

@Duncn As per comments above, my current count is at 4/5.

I believe the egg shortage qualifies; however, the industry has managed demand by raising prices, so you can usually still buy eggs at most grocery stores, if you're willing to pay the price. This has resulted in most news outlets reporting on the cost of eggs, rather than the egg shortage. I am currently counting this as 1/5 of the resolution criteria; if anyone objects, make your arguments now.

Inclusion of computer chips in examples of consumer goods makes the latter category somewhat ambiguous.

@GooglyEyes Yes; a shortage of cars due to a shortage of chips would count; a shortage of computer chips that did not result in any downstream shortages.... is not a true shortage? I'm open to further thoughts on this, but I'm assuming that a shortage of chips must result in shortages of playstations or phones or cars or something in order to be an actual shortage.

@Duncan Counting shortages of components of consumer goods muddies the water. I think that a news story about a component shortage that did not mention any resulting consumer good shortage should not count.

@GooglyEyes I agree, and moreover, if stories about chip shortages list multiple consumer products that are in short supply due to the chip shortage, that probably counts towards multiple of the five items.

@Duncan Do you agree that computer chips do not belong in the "e.g." list in the market description? (I don't know whether this comment has any practical import -- whether the description is editable by you.)

@GooglyEyes It is editable, and I will edit it.

@Duncan ... and done.