Will Russia invade Ukraine in March but NOT before the end of February?
4
4
αΉ29resolved Feb 24
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
Tailing off of this market: https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-russia-invade-ukraine-before-t
As of authoring this, there is only one week in February left with an implied 40% chance on the above market of an invasion occurring, whereas there are about four weeks in March left. Using a naive approach, zooming out and treating all weeks as having equal distribution in terms of extreme geopolitical events, the likelihood of something happening in a Month with more weeks should be greater than a month with fewer weeks.
We will use the market resolution metric, "If the AP reports a physical incursion by Russia on Ukrainian soil."
* I'm setting this to close at 3:59PM CST, or 11:59PM Ukraine Time on Feb 28th, 2022 to attempt to set a more accurate price according to https://manifold.markets/kjz/will-manifolds-developers-agree-wit
* However, the resolution will be on 11:59:59 PM Ukraine Time on March 31st, 2022.
* The resolution will be the time of invasion, not the time of reporting.
Close date updated to 2022-02-21 8:03 pm
Feb 21, 8:01pm: Closing trading since both markets have closed trading. Will resolve based upon outcomes and resolutions of other markets.
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