Will Russia control the majority of the Ukraine by January 1st, 2023?

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Russia already occupies the Crimea; will Russia control another 46% (or greater) of the Ukraine by the end of the year? Apr 2, 10:50am: I believe that if a new Ukrainian government comes to power and is sympathetic to Russia, this will probably resolve NO, but if, for example, the puppet government relies primarily on continued Russian military presence, it could still resolve YES. Apr 2, 10:58am: If a territory is an active battleground on Ukrainian (or recently Ukrainian) soil, I would say it is not effectively controlled by Russia.

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bought Ṁ20 of YES

The war has gone on for 8 months, with around 1-2 major shifts in advantage. Odds of another one in the next 2 months is well above 0.7%, especially because they are in a completely different election season and a completely different season season (november-december is cold).

bought Ṁ57 of NO

@TrevorWiesinger This take is too abstract. There are 60 days left, and Russia has never held more than 20% of Ukraine in the entire war so far. They'd have to more than double their best advance within 2 months. 0.7% is generous to Russia.

predicted YES

Man... I really fucked up with this one

predicted NO

@thadthechad Well, don't feel too bad. The market might resolve against you but it is a good outcome for Ukraine!

predicted YES

@SamuelRichardson That's true! Mainly talking about my prediction... I'm very glad for Ukraine!

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Correcting the mispricing from the liquidity sale.

sold Ṁ86 of NO

just realising some liquidity.

bought Ṁ40 of NO

I want to know the answer to Andy Martin's questions. Also, what happens to this market in a protracted war scenario where a lot of territory is being actively contested by insurgents?

bought Ṁ1 of YES

can you give more information about how you plan to handle a scenario where a new Ukrainian government comes to power as a result of the invasion? will this resolve to YES if a new Ukrainian government comes to power and is sympathetic to RU interests / generally regarded in the west as being "backed by Russia"?

sold Ṁ309 of YES

I have a lot invested in this, and I stand to gain big if it's YES, but recent events have led me to doubt (somewhat) the strength of the invasion. However, I think the window in which this market is operating lends plenty of time for Russia to complete the invasion.

bought Ṁ1 of YES

I am not planning on resolving this early, but could if the issue was pretty definitively settled; e.g., if the Ukraine surrendered and there was no significant ground action. But the market is asking abut the state of events as of 01/01/2023, so things would have to be pretty overdetermined for it to resolve early.

bought Ṁ1 of YES

Will this resolve yes if there is any occupation at any time above 50%, or will it be long-term? Does political control count, or just military occupation?