What day will Russia invade Ukraine?

133

Ṁ23K

resolved Feb 24

ALL

63%39%

Feb 24

18%11%

Feb 21st

18%11%

Feb 22nd

0.0%

Febrauary 18th

0.0%

February 19th

0.0%

February 20th

1.9%

Russia would not invade Ukraine

1.2%

After February 21st

35%

Feb 23

0.0%

Feb 25

0.0%

Feb 26

0.1%

Feb 27

0.1%

Feb 28

0.1%

Feb 29

0.0%

Feb 21st

As judged by EST.

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17 Comments

294 Trades

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sold Ṁ0 of Feb 25

It's absolutely unequivocal now that the official invasion day was Feb 24th, 2022. Putin himself ordered the invasion on this day, gave a speech about it, all major western media outlets were reporting an invasion on this day without any lack of certainty. Other small actions on prior days may be considered infiltrations or covert actions designed to create doubt and conflict among western nations as to whether an invasion had happened or not. The broad consensus is that an invasion happened today. The notion that the invasion happened on a different day is rhetorical, regardless of whether you believe that rhetoric was a good strategy to defend Ukraine, which it may have been.

bought Ṁ100 of Feb 22nd

The 2/21 and 2/22 are way too low right now.

bought Ṁ5 of February 20th

Still think it's 8/21, but I'll take 260-1 odds they might have gotten in early.

bought Ṁ1 of Feb 21st

I still don't know what day the invasion happened.

bought Ṁ43 of Feb 21st

I think it'll end up being on 2/21, that's what wikipedia is saying: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021%E2%80%932022_Russo-Ukrainian_crisis#Escalation_(February_2022_%E2%80%93_present) One of their sources: https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/chilling-social-media-footage-emerges-of-convoys-of-russian-military-equipment-entering-donbas-in-ukraine/news-story/ad0ec2c630b5e5aaaa8efdd85509e832

bought Ṁ1 of Feb 21st

@Duncan, here, I've put up a market for arguments on how to your resolve 'Russia invades Ukraine'. You may want to stake on ANTE now or later or something :P

bought Ṁ1 of Feb 21st

There's this, but it's not the strongest evidence: https://www.businessinsider.com/videos-russian-military-tanks-move-donbas-seen-donetsk-putin-invade-2022-2 Apparently my employer has blocked Discord at work, so I may be making general Russia comments here.

bought Ṁ5 of Feb 22nd

Putin apparently "ordered troops to Ukraine", but I have not read any news of troops actually invading Ukraine (Donetsk and Luhansk being counted as Ukraine). Reuters said "Much of the attention is on the east in Ukraine, where Russian troops could soon be on the ground." 5 hours ago (see https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56720589), which clearly implies that Russian troops were not on the ground on Feb 21st.

bought Ṁ1 of After February 21st

I bed $M 1 on every day except for Feb 21st, and they all had massive implied payouts, like in the order of hundreds of $M on a $M 1 investment. I am sincerely confused where people get their information and how there was an >80% certainty that an invasion would happen on that particular day, Feb 21st, 2022. As far as I have seen, there are reports that troops have been ordered into Ukraine, but this is not the same as actually invading Ukraine. You need at least on troop to step foot and carry out that order, which I am not sure whether there is evidence that this has happened yet or not. Perhaps everyone on here lives in Luhansk and saw it happen except for me.

bought Ṁ500 of Feb 21st

What about Russian military arriving on vehicles that were not tanks?

bought Ṁ1 of Feb 21st

Eastern standard time, yes. It's looking like it might be hard to know what day the tanks actually start/started rolling. Please state evidences and assumptions supporting your bids -- e.g., I consider Luhansk and Donetsk to be currently part of the Ukraine.

bought Ṁ7 of Feb 21st

EST = Eastern Standard Time correct?

bought Ṁ1 of Feb 21st

To clarify: I can't seem to close without resolving. I assume that once things are safely confirmed, this will resolve appropriately without difficulty.

bought Ṁ10 of Feb 21st

I don't seem to be able to close this market. Trade away, I guess.

bought Ṁ30 of Russia would not inv...

Arbitrage opportunity! https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-russia-invade-ukraine-before-t currently predicts 33% invasion by the 28th. This market predicts 38% of invasion before the 25th.

bought Ṁ1 of February 19th

Specific days will take precedence over ranges of days in market resolution; thus ranges are probably a bad bet. The response "Russia would not invade Ukraine" will be interpreted as "Russia will not invade Ukraine before the 25th" (if I were being persnickety, I'd consider it invalid, as Russia has already invaded Ukraine in the past, so we know they /would/).