Is a market that always resolves to MKT particularly prone to market manipulation?
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Ṁ278resolved Feb 8
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YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
Try and convince me otherwise.
#meta #marketmanipulation #sitemechanics
Jan 28, 4:06pm: See https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/is-ai-a-greater-existential-risk-to for an example.
Jan 28, 4:10pm: #Shortterm
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No. The argument is that if your resolution condition is not anchored to something objective rather than mere betting behavior, the market will not produce meaningful results. Resolving to MKT is fine if the contract has objective resolution criteria and if traders don't know that you're committed to always resolving MKT (if they *do* know you're always going to resolve MKT or according to bet volume, then that opens up the possibility—really, certainty—of manipulation and means the market process will not be predicting anything useful.)
That market didn't resolve MKT, but was resolved according to whichever side had more bet on it. It's the same underlying problem: the results aren't meaningful if a single deep-pocketed trader (or group of traders) can swoop in before the market closes and arbitrarily choose whichever outcome they prefer.
@Duncan, I think your original intuition is correct. Always resolving MKT leads to completely meaningless results. Case in point: https://manifold.markets/JiaobeiMandos/should-manifold-markets-implement-t-de1088aa58674
James argues that in MKT markets, actors are trying to predict actions of others (shelling point) but thats not the case for a typical MKT market unless you put a hard cap on maximum bet size for these markets. If you put a hard cap then it more of becomes a voting system that rewards the majority from the minority
Based on my opinion; you'll have to convince me otherwise. However, I will not sell my 'losing' shares prior to resolving, so there is something to win. Alternatively, if a significant number of people bid no AND convince me that their belief is wisely held and stronger than my own, I may resolve no. Given that many are better than math than I, this could be the winning strategy.
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