Duncan avatar
closes 
Dec 31
Will Russia control the majority of the Ukraine by January 1st, 2023?
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Russia already occupies the Crimea; will Russia control another 46% (or greater) of the Ukraine by the end of the year? Apr 2, 10:50am: I believe that if a new Ukrainian government comes to power and is sympathetic to Russia, this will probably resolve NO, but if, for example, the puppet government relies primarily on continued Russian military presence, it could still resolve YES. Apr 2, 10:58am: If a territory is an active battleground on Ukrainian (or recently Ukrainian) soil, I would say it is not effectively controlled by Russia.
Normal_Anomaly avatar
NormalAnomaly bought M$50 of NO5 months ago
Correcting the mispricing from the liquidity sale.
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MichaelBennett avatar
Handdara sold M$86 of NO5 months ago
just realising some liquidity.
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Normal_Anomaly avatar
NormalAnomaly bought M$40 of NO6 months ago
I want to know the answer to Andy Martin's questions. Also, what happens to this market in a protracted war scenario where a lot of territory is being actively contested by insurgents?
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AndyMartin avatar
Andy Martin bought M$1 of YES7 months ago
can you give more information about how you plan to handle a scenario where a new Ukrainian government comes to power as a result of the invasion? will this resolve to YES if a new Ukrainian government comes to power and is sympathetic to RU interests / generally regarded in the west as being "backed by Russia"?
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thadthechad avatar
Bob sold M$309 of YES7 months ago
I have a lot invested in this, and I stand to gain big if it's YES, but recent events have led me to doubt (somewhat) the strength of the invasion. However, I think the window in which this market is operating lends plenty of time for Russia to complete the invasion.
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Duncan avatar
Duncan bought M$1 of YES7 months ago
I am not planning on resolving this early, but could if the issue was pretty definitively settled; e.g., if the Ukraine surrendered and there was no significant ground action. But the market is asking abut the state of events as of 01/01/2023, so things would have to be pretty overdetermined for it to resolve early.
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marthinwurer avatar
marthinwurer bought M$1 of YES7 months ago
Will this resolve yes if there is any occupation at any time above 50%, or will it be long-term? Does political control count, or just military occupation?
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Duncan avatar
Duncan bought M$1 of YES8 months ago
Let's hope Putin is not a MM fan. There's too much $m in it to resist.
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Austin avatar
Austin bought M$1 of YES8 months ago
I've never seen a potential gain this large (+23223%)!
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Duncan avatar
Duncan bought M$1 of YES8 months ago
It's not often you see a market at 0%.
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