Will Russia control the majority of the Ukraine by January 1st, 2023?
Russia already occupies the Crimea; will Russia control another 46% (or greater) of the Ukraine by the end of the year? Apr 2, 10:50am: I believe that if a new Ukrainian government comes to power and is sympathetic to Russia, this will probably resolve NO, but if, for example, the puppet government relies primarily on continued Russian military presence, it could still resolve YES. Apr 2, 10:58am: If a territory is an active battleground on Ukrainian (or recently Ukrainian) soil, I would say it is not effectively controlled by Russia.
can you give more information about how you plan to handle a scenario where a new Ukrainian government comes to power as a result of the invasion? will this resolve to YES if a new Ukrainian government comes to power and is sympathetic to RU interests / generally regarded in the west as being "backed by Russia"?
I have a lot invested in this, and I stand to gain big if it's YES, but recent events have led me to doubt (somewhat) the strength of the invasion. However, I think the window in which this market is operating lends plenty of time for Russia to complete the invasion.
I am not planning on resolving this early, but could if the issue was pretty definitively settled; e.g., if the Ukraine surrendered and there was no significant ground action. But the market is asking abut the state of events as of 01/01/2023, so things would have to be pretty overdetermined for it to resolve early.