Will Russia control the majority of the Ukraine by January 1st, 2023?
12%
chance
Dec 31
M$21,474 bet
Russia already occupies the Crimea; will Russia control another 46% (or greater) of the Ukraine by the end of the year? Apr 2, 10:50am: I believe that if a new Ukrainian government comes to power and is sympathetic to Russia, this will probably resolve NO, but if, for example, the puppet government relies primarily on continued Russian military presence, it could still resolve YES. Apr 2, 10:58am: If a territory is an active battleground on Ukrainian (or recently Ukrainian) soil, I would say it is not effectively controlled by Russia.
Normal_Anomaly

NormalAnomaly bought M$50 of NO13 days ago

Correcting the mispricing from the liquidity sale.
MichaelBennett

Handdara sold M$86 of NO13 days ago

just realising some liquidity.
Normal_Anomaly

NormalAnomaly bought M$40 of NO2 months ago

I want to know the answer to Andy Martin's questions. Also, what happens to this market in a protracted war scenario where a lot of territory is being actively contested by insurgents?
AndyMartin

Andy Martin bought M$1 of YES3 months ago

can you give more information about how you plan to handle a scenario where a new Ukrainian government comes to power as a result of the invasion? will this resolve to YES if a new Ukrainian government comes to power and is sympathetic to RU interests / generally regarded in the west as being "backed by Russia"?
thadthechad

Bob sold M$309 of YES3 months ago

I have a lot invested in this, and I stand to gain big if it's YES, but recent events have led me to doubt (somewhat) the strength of the invasion. However, I think the window in which this market is operating lends plenty of time for Russia to complete the invasion.
Duncan

Duncan bought M$1 of YES3 months ago

I am not planning on resolving this early, but could if the issue was pretty definitively settled; e.g., if the Ukraine surrendered and there was no significant ground action. But the market is asking abut the state of events as of 01/01/2023, so things would have to be pretty overdetermined for it to resolve early.
marthinwurer

marthinwurer bought M$1 of YES3 months ago

Will this resolve yes if there is any occupation at any time above 50%, or will it be long-term? Does political control count, or just military occupation?
Duncan

Duncan bought M$1 of YES3 months ago

Let's hope Putin is not a MM fan. There's too much $m in it to resist.
Austin

Austin bought M$1 of YES3 months ago

I've never seen a potential gain this large (+23223%)!
Duncan

Duncan bought M$1 of YES3 months ago

It's not often you see a market at 0%.