Will Boris Johnson resign before March 2022? | Manifold

Will Boris Johnson resign before March 2022?

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NO

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Will Boris resign, for any reason, before the end of February? Dying in office does not count. #shortterm #UK #politics Jan 15, 10:34am: #boris #borisjohnson

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We have six days left of the month and the combination of Ukraine & 'end of covid' restrictions seem certain to occupy the news cycle for at least two of those. At this point 'NO' looks like free money.

https://polymarket.com/market-group/will-boris-johnson-be-prime-minister-of-the-UKv NO seems worth buying a little more right now.

Betfair has this at 3% https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics/uk-party-leaders/exit-dates-boris-johnson-2-betting-1.160740937 Polymarket has this at 7% https://polymarket.com/market/will-boris-johnson-be-the-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-on-march-20-2022

Also, they have wider conditions. If Boris dies, this will resolve 'no' (unless I've missed a relevant bit of legal terminology). They are asking the broader question of whether he will be prime minister, not just if he will resign.

Polymarket thinks the probability is much lower: https://polymarket.com/market/will-boris-johnson-be-the-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-on-march-20-2022

I don't see Boris resigning. His ego won't let him. He might be pushed, but he won't jump.

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